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Twelve weeks to beat the virus? #1075388
20th Mar 2020 8:41am
20th Mar 2020 8:41am
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wirral
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Excoriator Offline OP
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I have to agree with the egregious Boris on this. In twelve weeks the coronavirus crisis will be all over.

Bette than that, it will be all over without Boris having to lift a finger.

We have about 3,200 cases in the UK at the moment, and the number is growing by about 20% a day. So in twelve weeks (84 days) we will have 3,300 x 1.2^ 84 = 14.3 billion cases.

As there are only about 67 million in the country we can safely assume that in twelve weeks we will all have been exposed to it. About 5% of us will be dead of course, but 3.35 million dead won't stop Boris congratulating himself on his achievement!

Nor will it stop the idiots who voted for this incompetent clown last time doing so again if properly prompted by the media!

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Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075391
20th Mar 2020 10:00am
20th Mar 2020 10:00am
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Awww, still bitter Corbyn didn't win and Labour got the bloody nose they deserved for continuing with him?

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075402
20th Mar 2020 12:48pm
20th Mar 2020 12:48pm
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Greasby
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We might just conceivably have passed the peak by then and might be on a downward curve of new cases - IF everyone behaves themselves! - but 'sent packing'? I very much doubt it. He loves all this gung ho language. I wonder how many people it actually fools?

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Greenwood] #1075408
20th Mar 2020 2:06pm
20th Mar 2020 2:06pm
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Birkenhead
diggingdeeper Offline

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Originally Posted by Greenwood
We might just conceivably have passed the peak by then and might be on a downward curve of new cases - IF everyone behaves themselves! - but 'sent packing'? I very much doubt it. He loves all this gung ho language. I wonder how many people it actually fools?


More importantly are there are at least three very promising immunisations in the pipeline that could beat that deadline. Even if they don't come about, there are five existing already-trialled drugs (for other viruses) available that greatly reduce the effects of CV19 provided it is caught relatively early, if the body is fully loaded they are less effective, these in themselves could be life savers as not only are the symptoms milder, they only last about half the time.


The further you are down the pay scale, the more 'essential' you are when the s--- hits the fan... Sue Farbysmith 2020

Insults are engendered from vulgar minds, like toadstools from a dunghill - Charles Caleb Colton

We don't do charity in Germany, We pay taxes. Charity is a failure of governments' responsibilities - Henning Wehn
Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075413
20th Mar 2020 4:10pm
20th Mar 2020 4:10pm
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granny Offline
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Liverpool receiving shipments of goods. Instead of them coming overland much of it is being shipped. 3500 containers on one vessel arrived today, with supplies of food, medical equipment, and another shipment next to it of grain and animal feed.
These are the supplies we have been waiting for.

I really don't think it's fair for everything that's being done to be criticized , it's far worse in other countries and it doesn't give the boost to moral for those who are struggling to keep the country and the hospitals working.

Personally I have lost faith in human nature over this. If some consider the job is not being done properly , then get out and help. Think of those who might go without food this weekend because the shelves have been stripped, or even a cup of tea because they don't have any milk. The dog that needs a walk and maybe a tin of food .

Who heard Radio 1 today at 7.45am ? Radio stations across Europe all tuned in together and in unison played, 'You'll Never Walk Alone' ?


Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves. All things are bound together. All things connect.
~Chief Seattle
Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075439
20th Mar 2020 11:22pm
20th Mar 2020 11:22pm
Joined: Sep 2014
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The organisation I work for has been briefing us to expect the disruption to last for much longer, partly because it's a small Trust with around 1,800 Staff (of whom 10% are currently unavailable to work because they or a relative are self-isolating), but also because we are having to make huge procedural changes to fill the labour gap while shutting down Outpatient services, rationing Surgical cases, and reappropriating pre-op areas as ad-hoc Critical Care space. This will put a huge strain on the workforce in many ways, and we will unfortunately see colleagues dropping out due to stress rather than viral illness. It's an insult to see such absolutes being bandied about at this stage by those same commanders who have only just decided to stumble into action after having their heads pulled out of their soup.

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075445
21st Mar 2020 12:06pm
21st Mar 2020 12:06pm
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wirral
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Excoriator Offline OP
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Quote
Awww, still bitter Corbyn didn't win and Labour got the bloody nose they deserved for continuing with him?


Grow up Gibbo. It is merely the fact that Boris is not up to the job. There is quite likely to be someone in the tory party with his feet on the pedals but it sure isn't Boris.

He has evidently done what Blair did to justify our part in the Iraq war and found 'experts' to tell him what he wanted to hear.

Boris has found 'experts' who tell him what he wants to hear, with the disastrous result of an infection that grows by 20% a day. Anyone who seriously proposes cohort immunity as a means of controlling a disease with no vaccine is an idiot, whether he is PM or not! It is simply another way of saying 'do nothing and let it run its course'.

The tories have progressively run down the NHS, the police and the military, and all three are likely to be needed to fight this disease, and they are worried that they will be held accountable for it.

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075446
21st Mar 2020 4:31pm
21st Mar 2020 4:31pm
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granny Offline
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Maybe you don't keep abreast of the updates, but clearly you missed the one on herd immunity.. As it happens Boris is neither a doctor , a scientist or a medical man and as all PM's are advised by others who hold the necessary experience and qualifications in any particular field, maybe you could have volunteered your services ?
Your comments are painfully biased because of your dislike and bitterness toward a particular character and political party . Well tough titty, get on with it , this is not a political issue .

As you would appear to have all the opinions on how badly these experts are doing, so you must have all the answers too. !

We know all things can change rapidly, but as of todays figures for today's new cases (updated every 24 hrs)

Spain 3,355
Germany 1,804
Switzerland 571
Netherland 637
Belgium 558
Austria 165
Sweden 125
Portugal 260
Luxembourg 186
UK .............89 ........

So maybe they are doing something right ?


Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves. All things are bound together. All things connect.
~Chief Seattle
Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075449
21st Mar 2020 5:18pm
21st Mar 2020 5:18pm
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Excoriator Offline OP
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Herd of cohort immunity was mentioned by both Boris and only a fool would believe anything much he says but also supported by his advisers, both of whom seemed to have little idea what it was. THAT was what I found appalling

Herd (or cohort) immunity really means the disease cannot infect others because the others are immune. In the absence of a vaccine, this can only come about due to people having had it and survived so if half the population have had it and survived, you will have halved the rate of infection. At the moment it is about 20% so when 34 million of us have had it, and survived it will grow at 10% a day.

Now go on to consider what 34 million infections implies if we manage to cut the mortality rate to Chine3se levels of about 4.5%. I'll save you the trouble! It is over 1.5 million! This was advanced by Boris flanked by two experts as a means of controlling the disease and supported by them!

It was subsequently trashed by a team from Imperial College and a more sensible policy instituted. Unfortunately, the damage had been done and by then and we were getting person to person infections in the UK. The reason for this was our PM and his advisers had decided not to trace and test contacts, so all hope of keeping it from tghe general population was lost. It took a blast from the Boss of the WHO who emphasised the importance of testing "Test test test!" he said "You cannot fight a fire blindfolded!" But of course out team was hoping for herd immunity to save us.

Your simple minded comparison of new infections in Europe misses the fact that they got cases before we did - by luck more than anything else - and do not have an ocean between us and other countries. But we are a few weeks behind them and will catch up fast.

Whether I like Boris or not is not why I am attacking him. I am doing so because he is clearly not up to the job, and seems to have chosen 'experts' like himself. He is the wrong man to handle something as dangerous as this. I really don't care if he's replaced by another tory or even a LibDem. But he needs to go.

If I as an engineer can spot sodding great mathematical solecisms in the government's argument then something is badly wrong.

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075452
21st Mar 2020 6:09pm
21st Mar 2020 6:09pm
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 17,307
Wirral
granny Offline
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Well , I very much doubt even the best engineers never did a procedure such as draining the lungs !


Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves. All things are bound together. All things connect.
~Chief Seattle
Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075453
21st Mar 2020 6:10pm
21st Mar 2020 6:10pm
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 17,307
Wirral
granny Offline
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granny  Offline
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I'd bet any money that you wear a thong, Ex !


Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves. All things are bound together. All things connect.
~Chief Seattle
Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075455
21st Mar 2020 7:51pm
21st Mar 2020 7:51pm
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 13,501
Birkenhead
diggingdeeper Offline

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A worrying statistic I was trying to assess, if you look at the spikes in infections and spikes in deaths in individual countries they are often about 15 days apart perhaps implying people that die do so 15 days after they first show symptoms.

So for mortality rates should we be comparing deaths at one date to infection dates 15 days earlier? This gives a horrendous mortality rate. even if the 15 days is false, there should be an offset based on the average, whatever that is.

On a tactical level ....

It was obvious people were going to stockpile (in my mind quite rightly to a point, its called preparation), should the Government not have nudged the populace into stockpiling as early as possible?

Early stockpiling would have happened before the infection was out and about making shopping less likely to spread the infection.

Stockpiling comes to an end, once your front room is full of loo roll you reduce the buying back down to normal levels. Early stockpiling means once the infection takes hold there will be less likelihood of shortages in the supermarkets and fewer customers reducing the spread of infection..


The further you are down the pay scale, the more 'essential' you are when the s--- hits the fan... Sue Farbysmith 2020

Insults are engendered from vulgar minds, like toadstools from a dunghill - Charles Caleb Colton

We don't do charity in Germany, We pay taxes. Charity is a failure of governments' responsibilities - Henning Wehn
Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075457
21st Mar 2020 8:15pm
21st Mar 2020 8:15pm
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Heswallish
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fish5133 Offline
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are the death rates a % of those who have tested positive or a % of those who have or may have had it?

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075458
21st Mar 2020 8:26pm
21st Mar 2020 8:26pm
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 13,501
Birkenhead
diggingdeeper Offline

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Can be either or by comparison to the whole population, there's probably proper names but it is normally has a qualifying statement anyway.

The mortality rate of a disease would normally be by comparison to those known to have been infected, ie how likely the disease is likely to kill you if you get it. Its converse would be the survival rate.


The further you are down the pay scale, the more 'essential' you are when the s--- hits the fan... Sue Farbysmith 2020

Insults are engendered from vulgar minds, like toadstools from a dunghill - Charles Caleb Colton

We don't do charity in Germany, We pay taxes. Charity is a failure of governments' responsibilities - Henning Wehn
Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075467
22nd Mar 2020 2:45am
22nd Mar 2020 2:45am
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Birkenhead
diggingdeeper Offline

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Ouch! Over 1000 new UK cases on the 21st, 26% rise and that is without the people who have followed advice, got CV and not got in contact with the authorities.

Wirral and Cheshire still have low rates of infection.


The further you are down the pay scale, the more 'essential' you are when the s--- hits the fan... Sue Farbysmith 2020

Insults are engendered from vulgar minds, like toadstools from a dunghill - Charles Caleb Colton

We don't do charity in Germany, We pay taxes. Charity is a failure of governments' responsibilities - Henning Wehn
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