John McDonnell's view, expressed today, that a 'no deal' brexit is not going to happen because there is sufficient cross party opposition in the commons to stop it is the latest indication that the abandonment of brexit is increasingly a realistic possibiity.
A few months back and this sort of statement would have caused an outcry. Now it can be expressed with little surprise from anyone.
I feel, as a remainer, more optimistic now than I have been for ages. One can feel the enthusiasm for brexit trickling away, as the squabbling tories cock it up, and more and more facts about what departure will actually mean become apparent to the public. We are increasingly seeing polls reflecting a movement away from brexit, so a decision from the commons to abandon brexit will be greeted not with outrage as it would have been a few months back, but with general relief.
Surely May will get kicked out first and whoever has the bottle to replace her will have a point to prove.
Can you think of a Tory better than May?
She is rubbish but so are her colleagues. I can't see her replacement being any more capable.
One further point is that membership of the union has changed many tasks of governance into forms of working together or taken them over altogether. It is worth also asking whether our politicians are now capable of running a country. My feeling is that they are not. The thought of this country alone in the world run by the existing government, for instance, horrifies me!
Seems to me that those who have some modicum of power are intent on muddying the waters to increase the profitability to their own ends. We had a democratic vote ergo the powers that be must abide by that.
Why would you openly discuss negotiating points so that you could be shot down before presenting them? This is a high level game of cat and mouse - we don't want to be the mouse and therefore will not telegraph the next move.
Much ado is being made by those who have something to lose, like a nice comfy seat at the European Parliament or even heading that institution, and they are very, very noisy.
Certainly an orchestrated drip feed of anti brexit propaganda by those wanting to overturn the referendum...to give the impression of waning enthusiasm.. The only ones waning in enthusiasm are those who voted remain. The referendum was called original because the remainers thought they would win by a huge majority and thus put the thing to bed..Bit like Mays arrogance in calling an election. There is a majority of leavers who are just keeping their powder dry for the weasels who will try and overturn a democratic vote. Old Farage thought his job was done but we still might see him coming to the fore like a Churchill.
The very fact we cant get deals done with the EU shows how much they think they have our nation by the short and curlies.
Certainly an orchestrated drip feed of anti brexit propaganda by those wanting to overturn the referendum...to give the impression of waning enthusiasm.. The only ones waning in enthusiasm are those who voted remain. The referendum was called original because the remainers thought they would win by a huge majority and thus put the thing to bed..Bit like Mays arrogance in calling an election. There is a majority of leavers who are just keeping their powder dry for the weasels who will try and overturn a democratic vote. Old Farage thought his job was done but we still might see him coming to the fore like a Churchill.
The very fact we cant get deals done with the EU shows how much they think they have our nation by the short and curlies.
Nigel Farage,might start up his own political party[I thought he would have by now].I really hope he does because if we do not leave the EU.... say goodbye to the United Kingdom.
May is all for illegals and open borders she is just like another Merkel.
Certainly an orchestrated drip feed of anti brexit propaganda by those wanting to overturn the referendum...to give the impression of waning enthusiasm.. The only ones waning in enthusiasm are those who voted remain. The referendum was called original because the remainers thought they would win by a huge majority and thus put the thing to bed..Bit like Mays arrogance in calling an election. There is a majority of leavers who are just keeping their powder dry for the weasels who will try and overturn a democratic vote. Old Farage thought his job was done but we still might see him coming to the fore like a Churchill.
The very fact we cant get deals done with the EU shows how much they think they have our nation by the short and curlies.
Nigel Farage,might start up his own political party[I thought he would have by now].I really hope he does because if we do not leave the EU.... say goodbye to the United Kingdom.
May is all for illegals and open borders she is just like another Merkel.
Who are these 'illegals' that you keep spouting about?
There is no such thing as an illegal or bogus asylum seeker. Under the 1951 Convention on Refugees, which the U.K has signed, anyone has the right to apply for asylum in the U.K, and to stay here, until there is a final decision on their application.
Only the other day, Branson was going on about this. Stating that many who voted Brexit have died off and will die off soon !! He also said that in 5 years time more will have died off and he anticipates another referendum.
Now, apart from him having all the stats of how many people voted Brexit and how many of them have died ( obviously not such a secret ballot any longer) how very arrogant of him to think he is going on for eternity. He too could be dead in 5 yrs time, therefore his vote to remain didn't count for much either.
It is purely the empire builders, the MEP's and the politicians who look to their advancement in politics to higher levels,or to the UN or to Unicef ,or even to Peace Envoys (failed) etc. who are trying so desperately hard to disrupt the whole affair. Some of the old brigade who are Remoners , like Hestletine and Ken Clarke might also be dead in 5 yrs so they should shut up too.
It is a wonder who is likely to call another referendum anyway. Two and a bit political parties, the main two of which one committed on behalf of the electorate and the other not wanting to remain anyway(apparently now) after originally persuading the sheep in the party to follow their leader along with their trade union buddies.
Having looked at this topic on other social sites, I think the ball is most definitely still in the Brexit camp by a very long chalk. Only the 21-35's are blinded by all the hype and very childish propaganda that is being thrown around.
The unfortunate thing for them is, they were so disinterested in the referendum they all took themselves off to the music festivals, like Glastonbury, instead.
Certainly an orchestrated drip feed of anti brexit propaganda by those wanting to overturn the referendum...to give the impression of waning enthusiasm.. The only ones waning in enthusiasm are those who voted remain. The referendum was called original because the remainers thought they would win by a huge majority and thus put the thing to bed..Bit like Mays arrogance in calling an election. There is a majority of leavers who are just keeping their powder dry for the weasels who will try and overturn a democratic vote. Old Farage thought his job was done but we still might see him coming to the fore like a Churchill.
The very fact we cant get deals done with the EU shows how much they think they have our nation by the short and curlies.
Nigel Farage,might start up his own political party[I thought he would have by now].I really hope he does because if we do not leave the EU.... say goodbye to the United Kingdom.
May is all for illegals and open borders she is just like another Merkel.
Who are these 'illegals' that you keep spouting about?
There is no such thing as an illegal or bogus asylum seeker. Under the 1951 Convention on Refugees, which the U.K has signed, anyone has the right to apply for asylum in the U.K, and to stay here, until there is a final decision on their application.
Maybe snowhite is referring to this in the Sunday Times
"More than one million illegal immigrants are at large in Britain and most are unlikely ever to be removed, the former head of immigration enforcement told MPs yesterday................
Mr Wood, who left the department in 2015, told the home affairs select committee: “There’s probably over a million foreigners here illegally at the moment. There’s a large number, so no one could ever remove those, really. What there needs to be is a consequence. [It] needs to be seen that there is a risk that if you don’t abide by the immigration rules, and you overstay or you commit crimes, there is real risk of being removed.”
Statisticians have said that it is impossible to quantify the number of people in the country unlawfully. In an estimate 12 years ago, the Home Office put the total unauthorised migrant population in 2001 at 430,000. It has not published an estimate of illegal immigration since, though in 2009 the London School of Economics put the figure at between 373,000 and 719,000."
Because someone is illegal doesn't make them unwelcome. I an many others are perfectly relaxed at the possible presence of a million immigrants here. It is only raging xenophobes and gullible folk who have been told by the right-wing press that gets upset by this.
And there are many perfectly legal people I'd be very happy to see chucked out. Including one N. Farage.
My point, however, is that opinion is clearly on the change. Brexit is now a lot less popular than it once was, and is becoming even less so. Soon it will be toxic.
I an many others are perfectly relaxed at the possible presence of a million immigrants here. It is only raging xenophobes and gullible folk who have been told by the right-wing press that gets upset by this.
And people that want jobs, small businesses that are being put out of business, people that think the law should be upheld and people that are getting robbed (and even killed) by illegals that need money but can't receive benefits.
My point, however, is that opinion is clearly on the change. Brexit is now a lot less popular than it once was, and is becoming even less so. Soon it will be toxic.
That is the trouble-stirring media saying that which you normally discard? How many leavers do you know that have changed their mind, the few I know have not changed their mind about the principal of Brexit, its the worry about what sort of trashy deal May is going to sign up to.
Put our money on the simple fact that if UK offered £100 billion , all would be a joy for the EU .
They need our money ,particularly with the pathetic promise of another 8 countries joining the EU, and they are all poor countries, offering nothing. No work, no money, no industry apart from a couple of countries that still have bears dancing on chains !
We provide for them at the expense of our young people. The more countries there are as member states, the less our own country will benefit. It's all very well for those who did the education, education, education thing, there are those who could never manage it, and if you take the concept of European countries, our grand kids could well be the next beggers of the future as they are in so many other countries (it's getting that way here now too. Mostly foreigners bringing their culture with them ). All it ends up with is Germany gaining more, as they always do from devious moves of buying out businesses and institutions. UK would be available to offer employment and benefits to EU migrants , plus a percentage of our finances, and more of our industries being watered down or sold off, in a bid to provide the new member states with a possible pathway of supporting themselves through the industries we once held dear.
All it needs is Germany to take the Bank of England and the agricultural land. Farming; one in 5 recipients of subsidies are billionaires . We had subsidies for farmers long before we joined the EU, but eventually when sovereignty of the UK had gone there would be nothing to stop the EU from taking control of land too, and saving them trillions in subsidies. Just like the dreadful outbreak of foot and mouth as a run up to 11 agricultural/farming countries joining the EU. If there was ever a fix in destroying an industry, that was it ! Then the wind machines were erected on the silent lands as compensation to some farmers.
Austerity has been imposed on ALL EU member countries , maybe some don't know that, but it would result in the Governments receiving less in return from the EU pot at times of austerity. Our Governments are controlled by Brussels, but in the not too distant future, we will be able to see the light again even if it is a struggle for a while. We are proud and so we should be, with eternal thanks to our relatives who fought in the two world wars defending us from the things we are once again escaping from.
One more small point which cold mean a lot. I vaguely remember Mrs May initially saying she was a supporter of leaving the EU, when Mr Cameron was about to call the referendum. She was interviewed later and said she was for remaining.
At the time I thought and still do think , that she'd been told to fall in line.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...nnounces-intention-to-back-eu-membership Theresa May has indicated that she is prepared to campaign in favour of Britain’s membership of the EU, boosting David Cameron hours after Brussels tabled proposals for a new settlement following months of talks with the UK.
The home secretary, at one time considered as a possible leading figure in the no campaign, described the proposals as the “basis for a deal”.
. Brace yourself.
Because someone is illegal doesn't make them unwelcome. I an many others are perfectly relaxed at the possible presence of a million immigrants here.
But Ex, snowhite was talking specifically about illegal immigrants. Surely you're not condoning those ? As well as the points DD raised, what about home security in terms of without checks, we dont know what sort of miscreants or murderers we might be harbouring ? what about the fact that illegal workers dont contribute towards the country's taxes ?
Are you really happy and 'perfectly relaxed' with all that ?
Yes i was talking about illegal immigrants Venice.
Makes one wonder how Ex sees all this.totally wrong in my point of view.
Thank goodness we live in a country where we can hold our own views and discuss without being shot or mutilated.
Granny, do you not realise how unrealistic you are being?
We have our PM flying in a panic to Brussels, and achieving nothing! Not even a joint press conference resulted from the meeting, only a statement that both sides want things to speed up. Big step forward? You must be joking! It means absolutely nothing. Nobody wants this miserable charade to drag on forever. They never did, so there has been no change whatsoever.
What I think IS significant is that it is our hopeless PM that is doing the flying, while Junker is politely, but firmly saying 'No' after generously finding ninety minutes to hear Mrs May's request, after which she returned grim-faced, clearly having got nowhere.
And here you are STILL clinging to the ridiculous claim that "They need us more than we need them!"
And you, bizarrely, seem to believe we had austerity imposed on us by the EU! In fact the EU would not be able to impose austerity on us as we have our own currency. The truth of the matter was that the Tories imposed austerity on us because they are a bunch of incompetents who - despite everything - still seem to believe you have to run a country like a corner shop. (I read a book by Paul Krugman who pointed out that the UK was about the only country to impose austerity on itself! No other country would do so as it iss well known it doesn't work! Guess what! It didn't!)
I can't be bothered to go through all your claims, Granny. They are too numerous and too crazy to treat seriously. But the fact remains that in terms of negotiations we have got nowhere. Nor will we. The EU have not shifted one milimetre, and indeed why should they. We have made our own bed and will lie on it. Their concern is with the well being of the EU, not the well being of the UK. The UK, by contrast, has nothing to offer that they particularly want or need.
It is increasingly looking as if we will have no deal, no transition period, no access to free trade, no 'special treatment' and will be left to find markets as best we can with the rest of the world. We can look forward to a huge drop in the value of the pound, and the return of millions of expat Brits who will suddenly find their pensions nearly valueless in EU.
The alternative is to call off the whole brexit nonsense and stay in the EU. Support for this is growing, and I am pretty sure that either the HoC will vote it out, or that a referendum will be called that will result in a leave vote. Brexit is a bloody stupid idea. It always was a bloody stupid idea, and even those who failed to see this are now having their noses rubbed in what it actually means to ordinary UK citizens like you and me. Commonsense will prevail.
Locally we are seeing the first signs of brexit deindustrialisation happening in Vauxhall's in Ellesmere port. Companies like that do not shut down a successful factory in a single blow. They will increasingly find that the Ellesmere port cars (Astras) are not selling and will cut down on production bit by bit, and invest nothing in new models. Only when the place is running on a skeleton staff at a fraction of its full capacity will they announce it is no longer viable and shut it. It has happened often enough in the Northwest in other companies for it to be all to familiar and dismal a process.
And you are evidently happy about this Granny?
Sheesh!
Because someone is illegal doesn't make them unwelcome. I an many others are perfectly relaxed at the possible presence of a million immigrants here.
But Ex, snowhite was talking specifically about illegal immigrants. Surely you're not condoning those ? As well as the points DD raised, what about home security in terms of without checks, we dont know what sort of miscreants or murderers we might be harbouring ? what about the fact that illegal workers dont contribute towards the country's taxes ?
Are you really happy and 'perfectly relaxed' with all that ?
Yes I am. I think the whole concept of 'immigrant' is an arbitrary one - legal or illegal. I was born in Wales and am now living in England but does that make me an immigrant? Or you might have been born in Yorkshire and are now living in Merseyside. Does that make you an immigrant? Of course not, because we have arbitrarily decided that the borders are unimportant and allow the free movement of people across them.
Ideally, anyone should be able to move about the world and live wherever they like, and really there is no good reason not to allow this. In practice, people do NOT choose to do this much at all unless wars or famines drive them to it in which case we have a moral obligation to support them. Usually, they move back as soon as its safe to do so anyway.
The assumption that all sorts of criminals will be attracted to this country is easily countered by the fact that many native UK criminals will leave. Many quite famous British criminals have departed to places like Brazil for instance where they are beyond the reach of our police.
We have had uncontrolled immigration here from the EU for decades without the economy collapsing, without us being 'swamped', and without any detectable effect on employment. Indeed in London which has the largest number of immigrants - legal and illegal - of any UK city, the economy seems to be on a perpetual boom!
The only reason for the existence of any rules on immigration is xenophobia. Interestingly, this seems to be manifested only in the old - my generation - who were brought up before the era of holidaying around the world, the internet, and other forms of communication. The young lack this morbid fear of foreigners because they holiday more or less where they like, work for companies based in other countries and communicate with people all over the world on a daily basis.
I have two daughters who both work for international companies. They are used to flying around the world for work and for pleasure and think nothing of going to weddings in places like Bali or staying with friends in Melbourne for a week etc. The world has changed, and the whole notion of 'immigrants' is becoming increasingly untenable.
You need to remember two things. The first is that you have no more to fear from a foreigner than you have from a native Brit, and the second is that "Support me and I will protect you from dangerous foreigners' is the oldest political trick in the brook, and as we live on an island it is very easy to pull this one on people here as Farage and his ilk have shown.
. Brace yourself.
Keeps it going though, doesn't it ?
Maybe we could expand our ideas and have more fun with our cousins in New Zealand instead of the miseries in Europe.
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/v...p;utm_campaign=Content&sf122519296=1
I see inflation is now at 3%. 50% more than the wage growth. Ain't brexit great?
But we've seen nothing compared to what is coming when we leave!
I see inflation is now at 3%. 50% more than the wage growth. Ain't brexit great?
But we've seen nothing compared to what is coming when we leave!
Yep, unexpected bill for the Government next April, pensions like the State and Civil Service pensions are calculated from the CPI on the previous September.
I expect they'll weasel out of it somehow.
I see the OECD has a dim view of the 'advantages' of brexit too.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41652416 So much so that they suggest abandoning it would be the best plan. Failing that they urge the closest possible relationship with the EU to minimise damage to our economy.
Sooner or later I think May is going to have to go to the country and say "We have tried to secure a good deal for the UK and it has improved impossible to do so. Rather than severely damaging the economy we have decided to remain members for the foreseeable future"
And the sooner the better as far as we are all concerned.
I can't see anywhere in the article where it says or implies abandonment is the best option. It merely mentions there will be a dip. That is the financial markets for you, they make money by creating instability and panic, stability is not in their interests.
One would assume following Brexit day that UK production will go up and this will be driven by Government funding, it could be one of the best places in the World to invest. As you have said, the financial markets will have [artificially] driven the pound low, ideal for investment increases.
ok..Devils advocate
1) No party will dare call for another referendum in the short to medium term
2) May is not going to just say brexit is too difficult lets just forget it and stay in Europe
3) Would any party at a general election stand on a promise of reversing brexit (cons wont, would Labour and Corbyn?
4) what we may end up with is a brexit that doesn't mean brexit. e.g. we adopt everything that the EU has but not as a member
Times change. A few more months of no progress, cock-ups, inflation (it is forecast to get worse), more job losses, and the threat of a 'no-deal brexit might well see a vociferous majority demanding no brexit. Under such circumstances, the brexiteers may well call for a second referendum as a stop-gap measure in the hope that they can fool the public a second time.
I am pretty sure we are already seeing the start of an anti-brexit surge in opinion.
If I remember rightly, the EU said Brexit would be Brexit, and we would not have another chance if we voted Brexit.
Strange how the rules can change accordingly.
All they want is our money, even the President made that more or less clear tonight. £50-£60 billion he said....£20 billion is peanuts, he said. Once that is agreed we can move forward he said. Of course, that would be until the next hurdle where they would trip us up again, in an attempt to win the race.
What do you think Corbyn would do right now ? Offer £50-£60 billion ? Would you recommend that ?
Interesting article on whether a change in public opinion is underway here from Peter Kellner:
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/...are-voters-really-turning-against-brexit Surely, if neither the EU nor the UK wants to go ahead with brexit, there is no reason why they have to carry on with it, whatever pieces of paper have been signed or articles triggered.
As to paying £60 billion, I don't see a problem, provided it is paid after we leave. The pound will have plunged so much it will probably be worth only a couple of Euros!
It's all propaganda. The fact that I was talking to a couple yesterday from your homeland in Wales, and who voted to remain in the EU in the referendum, they voluntarily said that they would now vote to leave if there was another referendum.
Let's not forget, that most of LONDON are the complainants in all of this, have been since the first day and will continue to complain and cast doubt on the result until they get what they want. Maybe that's why the article shows a picture of Newcastle, an attempt to divert the attention away from Londoners. They also seem to think that anyone up north still wears clogs and cloth caps without a brain cell. That would include you too, Ex.
One sure way of making the housing market continue to rise, is to stay in the EU, and London would do very well out of it , so would all the foreign owners of property, such as landlords, investments etc.
Article 50 has been triggered, there is no way to cancel it, By agreement with the EU they could extend the termination period to an indefinite time ..... but I can't see the EU agreeing to that without some sort of concession against us.
What could they do if we just DID extend it without their blessing ?
What could they do if we just DID extend it without their blessing ?
We can't, after 2 years it automatically stops unless both parties agree otherwise.
What stops ?Brexit? So is that the Govt's default plan maybe? So are you saying the ability to Brexit expires and we go back to the status quo, or what position does it leave us in ?
I am pretty sure that if the UK decided not to go ahead with brexit, the EU would be perfectly happy for us to remain.
And the commons can do that if a majority feel that a 'no deal' brexit would not be to our benefit. Clearly it ISN'T to the UK's benefit - it would be disastrous - and many conservative MPs are of this opinion as well as almost all Labour, the SNP. the Lib Dems and most others with a grain of sense.
It should also be remembered that British business is pretty well united too, that a no-deal brexit would be a disaster for them. And they are the people who supply the Tory party with 98 to 99% of their funds.
If tory brexiteers want it to go ahead they are going to have to get a good deal, and the way they have managed things so far makes this pretty unlikely.
I don't see 'article 50' changing anything. If both the UK and the EU decide to call off leaving, then this piece of paper will be swiftly changed or 'reinterpreted' to allow it. I think Tusk has already stated the EU's readiness to accept the end of brexit if the EU changes its mind.
I remain optimistic that brexit will not happen. I suspect, also, that it will finish the tory party as a plausible political entity. A very good thing too in my opinion.
Seems to me that those who have some modicum of power are intent on muddying the waters to increase the profitability to their own ends. We had a democratic vote ergo the powers that be must abide by that.
only they don't need to abide by an consultative referendum. It wasn't a decision, there wasn't a winning line, there was't a prize only advice..
37% of those eligible to vote wished to leave, 35% to remain and 28% didn't say. That's all it was, an advisory referendum, all that results is advice...
It's all propaganda. The fact that I was talking to a couple yesterday from your homeland in Wales, and who voted to remain in the EU in the referendum, they voluntarily said that they would now vote to leave if there was another referendum.
Let's not forget, that most of LONDON are the complainants in all of this