wirral forums

Twelve weeks to beat the virus?

Posted By: Excoriator

Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 20th Mar 2020 8:41am

I have to agree with the egregious Boris on this. In twelve weeks the coronavirus crisis will be all over.

Bette than that, it will be all over without Boris having to lift a finger.

We have about 3,200 cases in the UK at the moment, and the number is growing by about 20% a day. So in twelve weeks (84 days) we will have 3,300 x 1.2^ 84 = 14.3 billion cases.

As there are only about 67 million in the country we can safely assume that in twelve weeks we will all have been exposed to it. About 5% of us will be dead of course, but 3.35 million dead won't stop Boris congratulating himself on his achievement!

Nor will it stop the idiots who voted for this incompetent clown last time doing so again if properly prompted by the media!
Posted By: Gibbo

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 20th Mar 2020 10:00am

Awww, still bitter Corbyn didn't win and Labour got the bloody nose they deserved for continuing with him?
Posted By: Greenwood

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 20th Mar 2020 12:48pm

We might just conceivably have passed the peak by then and might be on a downward curve of new cases - IF everyone behaves themselves! - but 'sent packing'? I very much doubt it. He loves all this gung ho language. I wonder how many people it actually fools?
Posted By: diggingdeeper

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 20th Mar 2020 2:06pm

Originally Posted by Greenwood
We might just conceivably have passed the peak by then and might be on a downward curve of new cases - IF everyone behaves themselves! - but 'sent packing'? I very much doubt it. He loves all this gung ho language. I wonder how many people it actually fools?


More importantly are there are at least three very promising immunisations in the pipeline that could beat that deadline. Even if they don't come about, there are five existing already-trialled drugs (for other viruses) available that greatly reduce the effects of CV19 provided it is caught relatively early, if the body is fully loaded they are less effective, these in themselves could be life savers as not only are the symptoms milder, they only last about half the time.
Posted By: granny

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 20th Mar 2020 4:10pm


Liverpool receiving shipments of goods. Instead of them coming overland much of it is being shipped. 3500 containers on one vessel arrived today, with supplies of food, medical equipment, and another shipment next to it of grain and animal feed.
These are the supplies we have been waiting for.

I really don't think it's fair for everything that's being done to be criticized , it's far worse in other countries and it doesn't give the boost to moral for those who are struggling to keep the country and the hospitals working.

Personally I have lost faith in human nature over this. If some consider the job is not being done properly , then get out and help. Think of those who might go without food this weekend because the shelves have been stripped, or even a cup of tea because they don't have any milk. The dog that needs a walk and maybe a tin of food .

Who heard Radio 1 today at 7.45am ? Radio stations across Europe all tuned in together and in unison played, 'You'll Never Walk Alone' ?
Posted By: MisterSmiff

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 20th Mar 2020 11:22pm

The organisation I work for has been briefing us to expect the disruption to last for much longer, partly because it's a small Trust with around 1,800 Staff (of whom 10% are currently unavailable to work because they or a relative are self-isolating), but also because we are having to make huge procedural changes to fill the labour gap while shutting down Outpatient services, rationing Surgical cases, and reappropriating pre-op areas as ad-hoc Critical Care space. This will put a huge strain on the workforce in many ways, and we will unfortunately see colleagues dropping out due to stress rather than viral illness. It's an insult to see such absolutes being bandied about at this stage by those same commanders who have only just decided to stumble into action after having their heads pulled out of their soup.
Posted By: Excoriator

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 21st Mar 2020 12:06pm

Quote
Awww, still bitter Corbyn didn't win and Labour got the bloody nose they deserved for continuing with him?


Grow up Gibbo. It is merely the fact that Boris is not up to the job. There is quite likely to be someone in the tory party with his feet on the pedals but it sure isn't Boris.

He has evidently done what Blair did to justify our part in the Iraq war and found 'experts' to tell him what he wanted to hear.

Boris has found 'experts' who tell him what he wants to hear, with the disastrous result of an infection that grows by 20% a day. Anyone who seriously proposes cohort immunity as a means of controlling a disease with no vaccine is an idiot, whether he is PM or not! It is simply another way of saying 'do nothing and let it run its course'.

The tories have progressively run down the NHS, the police and the military, and all three are likely to be needed to fight this disease, and they are worried that they will be held accountable for it.
Posted By: granny

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 21st Mar 2020 4:31pm

Maybe you don't keep abreast of the updates, but clearly you missed the one on herd immunity.. As it happens Boris is neither a doctor , a scientist or a medical man and as all PM's are advised by others who hold the necessary experience and qualifications in any particular field, maybe you could have volunteered your services ?
Your comments are painfully biased because of your dislike and bitterness toward a particular character and political party . Well tough titty, get on with it , this is not a political issue .

As you would appear to have all the opinions on how badly these experts are doing, so you must have all the answers too. !

We know all things can change rapidly, but as of todays figures for today's new cases (updated every 24 hrs)

Spain 3,355
Germany 1,804
Switzerland 571
Netherland 637
Belgium 558
Austria 165
Sweden 125
Portugal 260
Luxembourg 186
UK .............89 ........

So maybe they are doing something right ?
Posted By: Excoriator

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 21st Mar 2020 5:18pm

Herd of cohort immunity was mentioned by both Boris and only a fool would believe anything much he says but also supported by his advisers, both of whom seemed to have little idea what it was. THAT was what I found appalling

Herd (or cohort) immunity really means the disease cannot infect others because the others are immune. In the absence of a vaccine, this can only come about due to people having had it and survived so if half the population have had it and survived, you will have halved the rate of infection. At the moment it is about 20% so when 34 million of us have had it, and survived it will grow at 10% a day.

Now go on to consider what 34 million infections implies if we manage to cut the mortality rate to Chine3se levels of about 4.5%. I'll save you the trouble! It is over 1.5 million! This was advanced by Boris flanked by two experts as a means of controlling the disease and supported by them!

It was subsequently trashed by a team from Imperial College and a more sensible policy instituted. Unfortunately, the damage had been done and by then and we were getting person to person infections in the UK. The reason for this was our PM and his advisers had decided not to trace and test contacts, so all hope of keeping it from tghe general population was lost. It took a blast from the Boss of the WHO who emphasised the importance of testing "Test test test!" he said "You cannot fight a fire blindfolded!" But of course out team was hoping for herd immunity to save us.

Your simple minded comparison of new infections in Europe misses the fact that they got cases before we did - by luck more than anything else - and do not have an ocean between us and other countries. But we are a few weeks behind them and will catch up fast.

Whether I like Boris or not is not why I am attacking him. I am doing so because he is clearly not up to the job, and seems to have chosen 'experts' like himself. He is the wrong man to handle something as dangerous as this. I really don't care if he's replaced by another tory or even a LibDem. But he needs to go.

If I as an engineer can spot sodding great mathematical solecisms in the government's argument then something is badly wrong.
Posted By: granny

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 21st Mar 2020 6:09pm



Well , I very much doubt even the best engineers never did a procedure such as draining the lungs !
Posted By: granny

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 21st Mar 2020 6:10pm



I'd bet any money that you wear a thong, Ex !
Posted By: diggingdeeper

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 21st Mar 2020 7:51pm

A worrying statistic I was trying to assess, if you look at the spikes in infections and spikes in deaths in individual countries they are often about 15 days apart perhaps implying people that die do so 15 days after they first show symptoms.

So for mortality rates should we be comparing deaths at one date to infection dates 15 days earlier? This gives a horrendous mortality rate. even if the 15 days is false, there should be an offset based on the average, whatever that is.

On a tactical level ....

It was obvious people were going to stockpile (in my mind quite rightly to a point, its called preparation), should the Government not have nudged the populace into stockpiling as early as possible?

Early stockpiling would have happened before the infection was out and about making shopping less likely to spread the infection.

Stockpiling comes to an end, once your front room is full of loo roll you reduce the buying back down to normal levels. Early stockpiling means once the infection takes hold there will be less likelihood of shortages in the supermarkets and fewer customers reducing the spread of infection..
Posted By: fish5133

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 21st Mar 2020 8:15pm

are the death rates a % of those who have tested positive or a % of those who have or may have had it?
Posted By: diggingdeeper

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 21st Mar 2020 8:26pm

Can be either or by comparison to the whole population, there's probably proper names but it is normally has a qualifying statement anyway.

The mortality rate of a disease would normally be by comparison to those known to have been infected, ie how likely the disease is likely to kill you if you get it. Its converse would be the survival rate.
Posted By: diggingdeeper

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 22nd Mar 2020 2:45am

Ouch! Over 1000 new UK cases on the 21st, 26% rise and that is without the people who have followed advice, got CV and not got in contact with the authorities.

Wirral and Cheshire still have low rates of infection.
Posted By: Excoriator

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 22nd Mar 2020 2:32pm

Originally Posted by granny


Well , I very much doubt even the best engineers never did a procedure such as draining the lungs !


You reveal your ignorance once again.

Much of the equipment used in draining lungs was designed by engineers. The ventilators used were designed by engineers, and all the electronics available in modern medicine was designed by engineers, as was the network supplying oxygen and suction to every hospital bed.

Without engineers you'd be back in the days of leches and nonsense like ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny.

Of the two we'd be better off losing doctors than losing engineers. It took decades to persuade these numpties of things like the existence of microbes and the circulation of blood!


Posted By: Excoriator

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 22nd Mar 2020 2:34pm

Originally Posted by granny


I'd bet any money that you wear a thong, Ex !


Bet away Granny! Why should I do anything to save you wasting your money?
Posted By: Excoriator

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 22nd Mar 2020 2:52pm

Estimating mortality rate during an epidemic is notoriously difficult. Probably the best you can do is to use the algorithm: deaths / (deaths + survivors) which is asymptotic to the correct answer at the end of the epidemic.

Earlier, it can give ludicrously high readings. On a world basis at the moment we are seeing it rising through about 10% at the moment!

The best we can do at the moment is to look at the Chinese figures. they seem to have contained the original outbreak and the answer won't, therefore, be too inaccurate. Their mortality rate looks like about 4.5%. Even at the end of the outbreak, it is interesting that the death rate seems to be falling as they learn how tt recognise it early and improve their treatment of it, so perhaps the 4.5% is a bit too gloomy.

On the other hand their speedy construction of new hospitals may have improved their mortality rate. Our slow response won't help ours.

Years ago, I attended a mathematics conference in the US and one of the speakers was a virologist who described the mathematics of epidemics and although it's outside my field I found it sufficiently interesting to beard him and buy him a meal during which I extracted as much knowledge as I could from him. I'm no expert - more of an interested spectator, - but found I could follow the maths reasonably well and have remained interested in it ever since.
Posted By: granny

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 22nd Mar 2020 7:50pm


Much of the equipment used for draining lungs was a plastic tube with a needle on the end and a bottle. Not much engineering in that.

[img]https://assets.aboutkidshealth.ca/A...terDrainage_PleurX_EN.jpg?RenditionID=10[/img]
Posted By: diggingdeeper

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 23rd Mar 2020 12:00pm

Except that doesn't drain the lungs, it drains the chest cavity outside the lungs.
Posted By: granny

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 23rd Mar 2020 2:51pm

Originally Posted by diggingdeeper
Except that doesn't drain the lungs, it drains the chest cavity outside the lungs.



offtopic grin
Posted By: keef666

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 24th Mar 2020 10:22am

So last night the PM comes on the telly and tells everyone from 12.00 midnight [ Monday ] YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED OUT OF YOUR HOMES! Except to buy food, travel to work [ if its still open?] and a little bit of exercise,
If you don't sell food you should be closed!
The post office is open so people can do the lotto, I've seen learner drivers going down the road, small builders going off to work, two women walking close together one pushing a pram with a baby inside etc etc, no one is taking a blind bit of notice and then you wonder why its spreading so quickly!
Before you know it there will be road block's soon, manned by the Army
Posted By: cools

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 24th Mar 2020 10:31am

That’s what we need Keef, these bloody kids causing mayhem all over the place should not be out! The images I’ve seen on tv with the tube in London packed trains ....so glad I dint live down there but feel fir folk who do and relatives who must be so worried about them. Bring the army on I say....
Posted By: Fidelio

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 24th Mar 2020 10:57am

I expect the government is now regretting cutting the numbers of the Army and the police force so severely. According to the Wirral Globe there are now only 15 police constables and 4 sergeants for the whole of Wirral and given that many will be off shift/ on holiday/ sick / on courses, it doesn’t leave many to keep us safe in our beds.Stay safe and well people.
Posted By: granny

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 24th Mar 2020 12:49pm


Considering they only had 2 operational cars with 2 x police in each in B'head approx. 16 yrs ago, they've done quite well.
There was a police lady draw up at my local garage shop this morning.
Didn't they move towards community police , in the 2000's ? Taking the unemployed off the streets and giving them a position of superiority in a voluntary position ? I remember it well !
Posted By: diggingdeeper

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 24th Mar 2020 2:24pm

Mainland UK has never had martial law, only Ireland has. I don't think many would trust Boris to be the first to use it.

Supermarket shelves were filling up again yesterday apart from loo rolls which are expected to get on the shelves in quantity again today. Soap hasn't started to roll again yet for some strange reason
Posted By: cools

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 24th Mar 2020 2:34pm

Well I think he may be the first to do it DD and I’d welcome it. We’ve got too get a grip on this. Surreal times for surreal actions . Still seeing lots of cars and quite a few people about with kids I may add, strolling up the road quite normally . See Wuhan now virtually clear of it and look how they had to enforce it. Seems no matter how hard the message is a lot of people just ignoring it...
Posted By: diggingdeeper

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 24th Mar 2020 3:38pm

Perhaps you don't realise the implication, martial law is military rule and includes the right to shoot people, normal civilian laws go out the window, you have no rights and can be detained without being charged. Effectively it is a self-coup by the Government and once imposed it cannot be opposed, police, parliament and courts would have no powers indefinitely.

This is completely different from having the armed forces assist in civilian policing (with or without special powers).

Being in a car is no risk to yourself or others, if you decide to drive 200 miles for a country walk, there is nothing wrong with it, in fact for many it could be safer than taking a walk round the block for some exercise.

You can't maintain complete lockdown for extended periods of time, in national security it is recommended that the top level is only maintained for a maximum of 3 days because it becomes ineffective due to human nature.

The recycling centres have closed, I think this was an oversight by Boris's rules more than an intentional decision. Public health has always got to be a priority. He also forgot to mention petrol stations but these are remaining open.
Posted By: cools

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 24th Mar 2020 3:53pm

Yes I agree, now that you say explain it DD but ye armed personnel and given powers to not quite shoot people who don’t do it but certainly strong measures. I heard on lunchtime news , people actually spitting on the police and on people! It’s disgusting... Police , nhs and supermarket staff etc all having to go in and all we are being asked to do is STAY IN!! Don’t think all these cars are driving out to country DD , do you really?
Posted By: cools

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 24th Mar 2020 4:01pm

Taken from another forum but exactly what I think. I can’t put the image up so will just say the words.

If you were informed that there was a killer on the streets, randomly targeting innocent people...
But you didn’t know where they were, you couldn’t see them from your window, but you knew they were there...
Would you nip out? Would you let your kids out of the front door?

Powerful statement I think...
Posted By: diggingdeeper

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 24th Mar 2020 4:36pm

Originally Posted by cools
Don’t think all these cars are driving out to country DD , do you really?


Doesn't make any difference where they are driving to, there is absolutely no harm in it, it is safer to everybody than walking or public transport.
Posted By: keef666

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 25th Mar 2020 9:14am

I don't think its sunk into a lot of people yet, they see it on the tv, about other places and its not affecting them so just carry on, in my job, the one i am still employed in i spend most of my time going around with a spray and cleaning anywhere the other workers might have touched, [ whether it works or not? ] i stink of chlorine, but hope it will keep me safe?.
But as i understand, people who have died from this virus you will never see them again, you won't be going to funerals.

But for saying there is a killer on the streets, the government needs to go round the streets with a van and recorded message blasting out "Stay in the house! keep off the streets killer about!"
Posted By: cools

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 25th Mar 2020 9:38am

These stupid kids and stupid parents who letting them out, appreciate it hard, but for their sakes and everyone else’s they’ve got to be kept in. I go on another forum and apparently these kids are going around in their gangs causing mayhem , spitting , coughing on people just to get a laugh and reaction!!
Should be a curfew now and anybody with no good reason to be out should be confined somewhere and guarded as obviously these morons don’t get it! Too thick ! That’s where the army should be brought on and quite frankly I can see people lashing out at these kids and don’t blame them ! Should be more like China during this and be rougher , Sod human rights and all that garb , if you out causing trouble then expect severe consequences!
Posted By: fish5133

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 27th Mar 2020 2:49pm

i was playing with the WHO figures and adding my own % to try and find some comfort. At the moments the stats are comforting. Although i dont think we are being told the entire truth given the mobilisation going on. However when i came to thinking about the little graphs they show with a steep curve and peak and falling away that didnt tally with another graph illustration i saw to explain effect of social distancing. All social distancing seems to offer is a slow down in how fast and far it spreads in a given time period. so instead of say 500000 confirmed infections in one months time it will be in 2 months time but doesnt end just keeps expanding. Maybe the extra time will help in the search for a vaccine and in the speed of social breakdown. can anyone explain how they think the virus will actually end? Does it die off, does it need humans to propogate, what happens to the virus in a person who has died (is burying ok or should all be cremated?) Is the thinking that the virus will die out when it has no more people to infect.. I suppose we watch other countries ahead of us.
Heres World Health Organisation Stats (% of population mine if correct)
Global Population 7,8 Billion. Confirmed Covid 19 cases 466,000 (0.0006%). Deaths 21000 (0.00026%)
UK Population 68 million. Confirmed Covid 19 Cases 9533 (0.014%) Deaths 463 (0.00068%)
Italy Population 60 million Confirmed covid 19 cases 74000 (0.123%) Deaths 7505 (0.0125%)
Posted By: diggingdeeper

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? - 27th Mar 2020 5:33pm

That is the whole point of social distancing, it is to slow it down, slowing down the rate spreads the infections over time not just delay them by a fixed amount, this has at least two benefits.

Firstly if it slower there will be less cases at any one time so the NHS and NHS supplies will not be as inundated which will save lives.

There are both possible immunisation and treatments that reduce the severity on the horizon, the more time we have the more likely these will help and will save lives.

There is an enormous amount of research and studies going on.
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