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Posted By: Excoriator Inflation up again - 12th Dec 2017 11:19am
I hate to mention it again, but this is the effect of the brexit vote coming through. My bet is that we ain't seen nuthin yet. It will get a lot worse than this as actual departure looms, and our hapless PM is tossed about by the DUP, the lunatic fringe of her own party, and twits like Boris and Gove.

But I suppose this is what those who voted to leave wanted to see happening.
Posted By: venice Re: Inflation up again - 12th Dec 2017 12:00pm
Originally Posted by Excoriator
I hate to mention it again, but this is the effect of the brexit vote coming through.

But I suppose this is what those who voted to leave wanted to see happening.


Now you know thats not true Ex . With the exception of just a few eccentrics and lunatic rebels, the people that voted for leaving, did so in good faith convinced that it would benefit the UK in the long term.
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Inflation up again - 12th Dec 2017 1:46pm
Inflation is up because yet again industries that we privatised to increase competition and reduce price have actually cost us more with the blessing of this unholy Government who want all money to go upwards.

The pound has been rising all year, if the inflation was anything to do with Brexit the pound would be dropping like it did the previous two years.

If you think you've seen cuts in Council services just watch what happens over the next two years when this Government takes even more money from the Councils and gives it to the banks and alike.
Posted By: casper Re: Inflation up again - 12th Dec 2017 1:55pm
It wont be long before we have the mass denials of those that voted to leave, harking back to the days of Thatcher it became extremely difficult to find anybody that had voted Tory.
Posted By: granny Re: Inflation up again - 12th Dec 2017 4:53pm

Inflation is up throughout the EU. Inflation related to interest rates, amongst other things, including the £ to Euro exchange rate.

Generally, when people feel like spending – in other words when demand for goods and services exceeds supply – inflation tends to rise. When people don’t feel like spending and supply exceeds demand, inflation tends to fall.

Posted By: Excoriator Re: Inflation up again - 12th Dec 2017 5:10pm
Inflation in the Eurozone is at less than half of ours at 1.5%, and it doesn't seem to be rising significantly. People may well be feeling more confident in the 27, indeed a number of indicators shows they are doing quite well there. It isn't the case here, alas.

All the evidence, here, is that people are having to cut back more and more. Businesses are not investing. The reason prices have gone up here is very simple. The brexit vote resulted in a 15% drop in the value of the pound. That takes time to trickle through to the shops which is why it didn't happen immediately.

It is nothing to what we'll see after we leave however.

But as Casper observes, it will then be difficult to find anyone who voted to leave!
Posted By: fish5133 Re: Inflation up again - 12th Dec 2017 5:56pm
Theres always been inflation. I cant think of many things that are cheaper today than say 20 years ago.
Posted By: granny Re: Inflation up again - 12th Dec 2017 9:45pm


Well, Ex and Casper , I will always stand up for being a 'leave' voter, because I still consider it to be the right answer to what was an ever increasing unity into the EU equivalent (eventually) of what was, the USSR. The fact that everything has been diamond studded with a view to enticing the support of a federal state , doesn't mean to say it won't all turn to paste. We all know who or what is the top level and very cunning attempts to hide the truth have been observed by the very astute British public.

If you weren't one of them, then watch out for what happens the future for the rest of the Europeans.
Posted By: granny Re: Inflation up again - 12th Dec 2017 9:58pm


Our inflation has not gone up by 3% it's gone up from 2.8% in November unchanged from October. Total of 0.2 % .
Did you have a whimp in October and November ? No ! Only because it's on the news and they're making a big hullabloo about it. Jump on the bandwagon why don't you.

Not all EU countries are 1.5%, so tell me , it's 1.5% of what ?
UK rose by 1.2% in December 2016. 1.3% in 2014 and as Fish says, there is always inflation.

The EU stipulates about inflation. http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/pages/publication15562_en.pdf

Also, why are imports suddenly expensive from the EU, we are still a member of the EU, so you can blame Brexit all you like, this is purely down to foreign companies bleeding us and in my opinion being spiteful. i.e. apart from energy prices (also foreign companies) but they have been significant in the EU inflation prices too.
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Inflation up again - 12th Dec 2017 9:59pm
I haven't heard any leavers who think they made the wrong vote, that's a bit different from those that think May has completely messed up the negotiations.

Does anyone know what the UK stance is at the moment as to whether the agreement last week was to be a binding or non-binding agreement?

If the EU expect us to sign binding agreements on all the things that work in their favour but have all the others non-binding then we should walk away.

The EU has no advantages, you only have to look at Greece to see how there is no "EU Community", Greece is signed up to poverty forever, there is no recovery plan, there was no help from the EU to stop the mess progressing, indeed the EU facilitated the mess that Greece got into.
Posted By: granny Re: Inflation up again - 12th Dec 2017 10:25pm


So far as I am aware, DD, it's that nothing is binding until the final deal. So even at the 11th hour we can still call a 'no deal'. That is how I understand it but could be wrong.

I fear the greatest problem is that if things are not cut and dried prior to the next General Election, we could then end up having the country put through the wringer and that could see us joining the throngs of Venezuela, Bolivia ,Columbia and others. wink
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Inflation up again - 12th Dec 2017 10:41pm
Our inflation rate as just published is 3.1% Growth in wages is 2.2%. In other words we are getting poorer.

The reason goods from the EU are now more expensive is that the people selling them want payment in their own currency. If the customer is a Brit and is paying in pounds, he'll have to cough up more pounds because it collapsed by 15% as a result of people like you, Granny, voting to leave.

Both Greece and the UK share the dubious distinction of having lost the most in earnings since 2007 across the OECD. We both lost about 10.4% of earnings from 2007 to 2017. Greece now has a higher growth rate than the UK, lower inflation at 1.1%. and wages are growing at slightly above inflation. They are, therefore, unlike us getting richer, albeit slowly. The European Bank lent them money as I recall, conditional on their getting their house in order. They did so, and are well on the road to recovery.

Unlike us, they are not facing a situation where suddenly 40% of our expoerts may be hit by duty making them more expensive. Also unlike us, they do not have a clueless bunch of economic numpties running the country. You may also like to reflect that as the Greeks use Euros, they have no control over their currency and cannot devalue it to improve their export potential. They had austerity forced on them therefore.

The UK is an outstanding, monumental, piece of stupidity inflicted austerity ON ITSELF! The effect of it on both countries has been identical however. It is no coincidence we are both suffered so badly after the crash.

We are already getting poorer, and the rate at which we do so can only accelerate with brexit. Even the RAND corporation thinktank has pointed out what a disaster it is economically.

Finally, it is pretty clear that people ARE now beginning to regret voting leave, as may be seen here: https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/uk-poll-results/
Posted By: granny Re: Inflation up again - 12th Dec 2017 11:08pm
If you are trying to compare the UK to Greece, you are off your f..ing trolley. That is probably the biggest joke of the century.

'Well on their way to recovery' ?? Well, I'm pretty pleased about that, because they had no chance of going any further down the cess pit. It's impossible when one is at the bottom already.

Posted By: fish5133 Re: Inflation up again - 12th Dec 2017 11:44pm
EX
Quote
"Finally, it is pretty clear that people ARE now beginning to regret voting leave, as may be seen here: https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/uk-poll-results/"

To quote a remain voter (Rupert Myers) "Leavers can’t regret winning because almost nothing has happened yet to vindicate or condemn their choice."
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Inflation up again - 13th Dec 2017 2:01am
Originally Posted by Excoriator
It is no coincidence we are both suffered so badly after the crash.


We didn't, compared to most other economies we did exceedingly well. However the Tories have falsely used that as an excuse to rake the majority of the population to keep their rich chums on at least a 15% increase in wealth every year.

And that is also why our wages have gone down, nothing to do with the crash, nothing to do with Brexit - our own Government are thieves.

Greece is now being asset stripped, how can an economy recover when what it has got is being handed over to foreign owners, the profits will then not go into Greece, they will be taken away. Yes, it makes the GDP figure look good but that is not a measure of a country's finance.

We need self rule so we can sort our Government out, we cannot fight two Governments (including 27 other countries) that are not acting in our country's best interest.

May has done absolutely nothing to improve this country, along with Brown, Blair and Thatcher we have been stuffed.
Posted By: granny Re: Inflation up again - 13th Dec 2017 6:42am

One difference or two differences . i.e. Blair was PM for 10 yrs, Brown had 13 yrs at the top. 10 as Chancellor and 3 as PM. and Thatcher had almost 12 yrs as PM.

Mrs May had 5 yrs as Home Secretary and a little over 18 months as PM. Thrown in at the deep end when Cameron decided to do a runner, and faced with the result of the Referendum, of which nobody had any previous experience to deal with.

Battered ,criticized and attacked from all sides , mainly because there was an element who wanted their own agenda for the Brexit negotiations.

Nobody is a miracle worker, and wages have not gone down, it's just that they have not gone up in all areas with the cost of living. So people haven't had the cost of living rise but have had other increments.

That could also be due to the fact that many of the lower paid workers now have commission paid in addition to their salaries. Commission makes them work harder to get more results and then the management can have bigger bonuses at Christmas.

Who are the rich chums of 15% increase of what every year ? I don't know who you refer to .
Posted By: granny Re: Inflation up again - 13th Dec 2017 7:07am


The lion's share of the upward pressure came from air fares, which recorded a smaller drop between October and November at 10.4 per cent, compared with a 13.4 per cent fall over the period last year.

Computer games prices were also boosting everyday costs, as games, toys and hobbies lifted 3.7 per cent on an annual basis in November.

On the month, prices climbed by 2.2 per cent, compared with 0.7 per cent growth last year.

Food and non-alcoholic drinks prices pushed higher, picking up by 0.6 per cent month on month in contrast to a 0.5 per cent lift for the period in 2016.

Motorists were also facing higher fuel costs in November, with petrol up by 1.8p per litre month on month to 119.1p, and diesel rising by 2.3p a litre to 122.8p.

Why is this the Government's fault ?


Posted By: Excoriator Re: Inflation up again - 13th Dec 2017 10:27am
The point of the EU is that people in Greece can, if they choose to do so, move to another country. 'Asset stripping'a country, therefore, makes little sense to anyone! Greece is part of the EU and will remain so. Ownership of the assets is of little interest to the people who live there. It makes little difference to the people involved in producing wine or olive oil, or who work in the tourism industry whether the owner is a German or a Greek.

In the UK, of course, we will soon not be part of the EU. This means that there will be every reason why UK based facilities will be shut down, or not invested in, by international companies, especially if there are tariff barriers to moving product to the EU. Whether you call this asset stripping is neither here nor there. The result will be the UK will have to buy more from the EU and make less and less. This will be done slowly, so as not to make headlines, but it will happen, depend on it.

You are wrong to blame Brown, by the way. Before the tories took over, the UK economy was growing again, thanks to his intervention after the banking crash. He went for investment rather than contraction, unlike the tories whose policy of austerity is what has damaged us so much.

As to your hopes that we will be able to shift them after we leave the EU, you can forget it. They meant what they said about taking back control, and they will do so. We will be totally in their hands, isolated from the EU, and unable to appeal to them for protection.
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Inflation up again - 13th Dec 2017 3:06pm
Ownership of the assets matters hugely to Greece, foreign ownership takes the money away from the country, much as what has happened to this country. If the money goes out, the country is made poorer.

If the Greek workers move to another country that certainly doesn't help Greece as a country either. The country has little choice between being Germany's bitch or leaving the EU. Huge unemployment problem and having loads of immigrants arriving creating an even bigger unemployed population.

Greece being a Schengen island doesn't help them either and many other EU countries are very glad that they are.

Posted By: Excoriator Re: Inflation up again - 13th Dec 2017 4:00pm
How on earth does it affect Greece who owns the business?

The Greek government makes money by taxing it whether it's owned by a Greek or a Pole or an Irishman. They also tax the workers, and although they are likely to be paid a lot less than the owner, there are more of them, so their contribution is a lot more.

Your analysis of the situation is based on a tribalist pre-globalisation view of the world. National boundaries are a lot less important now in many different ways. It is even very likely that the German owner (or shareholder) in a Greek olive oil company may choose to build himself a holiday villa in Greece, or extend his processing plant, returning much of his profit there.

Anyway, The Greeks have very sensibly chosen to stay inside the EU. Their future is a lot brighter than ours.
Posted By: granny Re: Inflation up again - 13th Dec 2017 5:18pm
Originally Posted by Excoriator


Anyway, The Greeks have very sensibly chosen to stay inside the EU. Their future is a lot brighter than ours.


Absolute rubbish.

Population 11 million.-

Unemployment- 21%.

Poverty- 4 out of 10 children at risk.

Extreme poverty - 1.5 million.

Three quarters of a million middle class are now confronted with poverty.

Poverty gone up 40% since 2008

The fact that 'Tourism' is classed as one of their main industries, I imagine that could be affected quite drastically, due to the influx of migrants on their shores. Hotels given over to refugees and migrants. Thus destroying the local tourism industry. Greece being a nation of shop keepers , it's probably hit them very hard. Not much tax coming out of those little business.
Posted By: casper Re: Inflation up again - 13th Dec 2017 7:03pm
Originally Posted by granny


Well, Ex and Casper , I will always stand up for being a 'leave' voter, because I still consider it to be the right answer


Glad to hear it granny, I wouldn't expect anything less, we have both made decisions on what we felt was right, only time will tell.
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Inflation up again - 13th Dec 2017 10:56pm
Quote
We didn't, compared to most other economies we did exceedingly well.


Oh no we didn't. We became 10.4% poorer from 2007 to 2017. Just like Greece!

They, however, are currently enjoying earnings growing faster than prices. We are not. We continue to get poorer.
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Inflation up again - 13th Dec 2017 11:08pm
Quote
I will always stand up for being a 'leave' voter...


Well, I'm glad to hear you taking responsibility for your foolishness Granny. I hope you continue to do so as the economy collapses around you and it becomes hard to afford food and heat.

You won't of course. You'll find someone else to blame. The EU will be 'punishing ' us, or it will be the tories mismanaging the paradise that could have been brexit or something...

Anyway, after tonight's defeat in the Commons, I wouldn't be surprised to see further defeats, and possibly May being told by parliament what they will accept as an agreement and - more importantly - what they will not.

If May cannot get what parliament wants, I would expect we'd just have to stay in! No sensible parliament is going to willingly plunge the country into economic chaos.

Posted By: granny Re: Inflation up again - 14th Dec 2017 12:25am


Strange, I can't afford food and heat now, so what's the difference ?

So far as Brexit goes, I'm fed up with it as said before and some who have obsessions about it, cannot let it lie because they are intent to try to punish those who don't do or think or see as they do. That's bullying !

At least Casper and I understand each other,with having different opinions and accept it.

All I can say is if Brexit is derailed, in any way that is not in alignment with the original intentions, then I assume that many will not vote again, or not for a very long time. In the meantime it could mean a couple of steps or more nearer to a dictatorship by JC. just like his foolish South American friends that show such outstanding qualities and abilities !
Get him in no 10, and you would certainly have something to groan about.
Posted By: RUDEBOX Re: Inflation up again - 14th Dec 2017 12:52am
Retweeted Tory Fibs (@ToryFibs):

Is your money not stretching as far this Christmas? Here is why. For the last 210 days, prices have been rising considerably faster than your wages.

https://t.co/Yx3dQPMhsD

Posted By: Excoriator Re: Inflation up again - 14th Dec 2017 10:56am
The tory panacea of austerity hasn't worked. It NEVER works. The effect of it is to choke off growth. Keynes showed clearly why this is the case. Sadly, it seems to be beyond the grasp of the conservative party.

Add to that the fact that they have made unions so ineffective that the bulk of social spending goes to supporting people who are in work but paid so poorly it is impossible to live on their wages. It is easy to blame Thatcher for this, and she certainly crippled them, but I also blame 'old' Labour for doing nothing to change the situation. Hopefully, JC will change this when he gets in. We certainly need to share things out more fairly than they are now.

The only way brexit can be made acceptable to this country is for us to continue to have free trade with the EU. Mrs May has already agreed to this, and it has been made clear by the EU that this agreement is binding. It will be interesting to see if the EU continue to insist that free movement of people is also accepted. As this seems to be a fundamental principle of the EU then I imagine they will.

The result is that we will - economically - remain within the EU, whilst relinquishing all control over it. This would suit me just fine. I think the UK has been responsible for pushing the EU to the right over the years rather than the left, and abandoning its influence is - to my mind - a good thing for Europe. Although it suits me, I didn't vote to leave.

How what we are heading for can be construed as 'taking back control' is baffling. It seems to be the reverse of what brexiteers want, but that's their problem, not mine. Now parliament has the veto on any tory agreement, they can, of course, prevent them following the "Just walk away" policy. This is such a palpably daft idea that I cannot ever see any parliament ever allowing it.

If many brexiteers (including Granny) decide never to vote again, then that is their decision, not mine. I suspect it will not happen, but if it does it will clearly be right-wingers who don't vote, which also suits me just fine.
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Inflation up again - 14th Dec 2017 6:42pm
Originally Posted by Excoriator
I think the UK has been responsible for pushing the EU to the right over the years rather than the left.


I think the EU has always been on the right and that probably accounts for our disagreements on many of our discussion.

Its main start was the Common Market (as we chose to soften its description to). That was a capitalist restrictive trade organisation designed to brickwall cheaper products from other countries.

The free movement of people was to get cheap labour to move around to pull down the labour costs of other countries.

The Euro was a complete financial control.

The Working hours directive put figures up which were higher than the average hours in many countries in the EU thereby trying to get people to work longer hours not shorter.

It has done nothing that does not benefit capitalist ideals.

Basically if Donald Trump was running Europe as a company the policies would be roughly the same.

When it comes to international issues, Europe has been exceedingly lax, taking NATO as an example, there are only five countries paying what they promised (UK, Poland, USA, Estonia and Greece). Germany despite being the greatest economy in Europe is one of the worst countries for not paying their way in NATO at about 40% short, France are short, Spain are paying less than 50% of what they should etc.
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Inflation up again - 14th Dec 2017 10:20pm
It welcomes poorer countries into the fold and provides them with the necessary infrastructure funding to get up to roughly comparable economic parity.

It allows people to move from country to country to pursue work or pleasure

It establishes a democratic framework for all and sets basic human rights.

And what do you think the ECHR is for? The clue is in the name.

Most of these have been opposed by the UK at one time or another. As to blaming the EU for countries not paying up for NATO, this I think, torpedoes your claim that sovereignty (whatever that is) is removed by membership of the EU. Countries are free to do what they like. They don't all agree with NATO and not everyone thinks it gives good value.

Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Inflation up again - 15th Dec 2017 12:10am
Originally Posted by Excoriator
It welcomes poorer countries into the fold and provides them with the necessary infrastructure funding to get up to roughly comparable economic parity.

It allows people to move from country to country to pursue work or pleasure


As I said, allows cheap labour to infiltrate other countries.

Originally Posted by Excoriator
It establishes a democratic framework for all and sets basic human rights.


No, there is nothing democratic about the EU, the European Parliament can't do anything without the unelected Council allowing them to do it. The Council decides what MEP's vote on, therefore the EU is totally controlled by an unelected authority.

Originally Posted by Excoriator
And what do you think the ECHR is for? The clue is in the name.


The the ECtHR is an international organisation and is not part of the EU, it is part of the Council of Europe (you may have noticed a lack of elections for the this Council as it is unelected of course). "Human Rights" to quote Shakespeare:- "What's in a name?".

Originally Posted by Excoriator
Most of these have been opposed by the UK at one time or another. As to blaming the EU for countries not paying up for NATO, this I think, torpedoes your claim that sovereignty (whatever that is) is removed by membership of the EU. Countries are free to do what they like. They don't all agree with NATO and not everyone thinks it gives good value.


They aren't forced into NATO, they chose to sign up and it is pretty easy to leave, as France did at one time. They all agreed to aim for 2% GDP in 2014, Germany hasn't headed in that direction at all, Estonia and Poland increased their spending to achieve the target, Greece has reduced its spending but is still above the target. Britain has always been above the 2% target. Europe as a whole has decreased its spending.
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Inflation up again - 15th Dec 2017 8:45am
Well, the way things are going at the moment, it looks as if we shall be in the free trade area, unable to be free to trade with other countries as we choose - the two are incompatible - and in all probability compelled to accept free movement of people as now. We will have no say in how this is all administered, however, having politically left the union. Most of this has already been agreed by May, albeit not directly.

How this is better than being fully in the EU as now is baffling. I doubt if even the brexiteers are in favour of it.

Hopefully, our elected parliament will see how foolish this is and kick the whole brexit thing into touch. I get the strong impression that this is increasingly likely. Parliament has given itself the power to do it, and I think are developing the confidence to ignore the referendum and do their jobs, which is not to do the bidding of anyone but to do the best they can for the country. Increasingly, the electorate is having second thoughts too, if the polls are to be believed, so they have growing support.
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Inflation up again - 15th Dec 2017 12:20pm
I haven’t seen any mention about free trade zone, we are much more likely to have a special treaty of some sort.

I don’t think us being inside the FTA would wash with either side.
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Inflation up again - 15th Dec 2017 2:26pm
How else can you not have a border in NI?, Or in the North Sea?

It is the inevitable result of the agreement Mrs. May has made. We will be in the FTA for the next two years anyway, and if it works we'll carry on I expect. It WILL work because we are in it now and it works so that'll be it.

It is worth noting that the EU has pointed out that any trade agreement talks cannot even start until we have left the EU. I imagine a lot of brexiteers imagine that 'trade talks' will start in March, but that is most definitely not the case. It is about defining a post-brexit relationship. Things like policing, joint research projects, radioisotopes for medicine etc. Anything but trade.

Note that membership of teh FTA must mean we will be very restricted in what trade agreements we can make with the rest of the world too.
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Inflation up again - 15th Dec 2017 6:36pm
Nobody has said there will be no border, they have said there will be no hard border to people and trade between Eire and NI, they have also said there will be no hard border to trade and people between NI and GB.

However we already have medium borders between GB and Ireland, you cannot travel without ID between the two, you cannot transfer bulk items without documentation.

If the EU want to impose tariffs on their other prerequisites then they will have to decide how it will work, the UK have a solution, the EU haven't.
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