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Posted By: Excoriator Trade deficit - 10th Oct 2017 12:26pm
I see we managed - as a country - to spend £5.6 billion more than we earned last month. That works out at about £86 pounds per British nose - and that's just this month! Without the money-changers in the City, (with us at least until brexit) the deficit would have been much worse. £14 billion, or £215 each for the month.

Looking at the deficit figure, it is getting rapidly worse every month. The hope that the brexit referendum drop in the pound helping exports seems not to have materialised. I can't see this getting any better with brexit, not even a 'soft' one, and a hard one would make things a LOT worse.

Does any of this matter? Sadly, yes it does. We are living on tick, and our creditors will eventually decide enough is enough. When they do, we will see a MASSIVE drop in the value of the pound, rip-roaring inflation and a massive influx of expatriate pensioners who will suddenly find their pension in Euros is worth peanuts.

I am normally a fairly optimistic person, but I can see NO good coming from brexit, or this government who evidently cannot make the country earn its way even before brexit was even a possibility. Stockpiling tinned food it appearing to be a sensible thing to do.
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Trade deficit - 10th Oct 2017 1:13pm
We can’t earn our way because we are in the EU.

Our trade with the EU is not enough to support us.

The EU prevents us from trading properly with most of the world.

We can’t carry on as we are, something has to be done, the EU have done nothing to allow us to improve our trade balance. We will be Greece in a few years time.
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Trade deficit - 10th Oct 2017 3:18pm
Original, but quite wrong. The EU doesn't prevent Germany running a huge trade surplus, and they operate under the identical rules to us.

We do badly because our governments (Labours as well) have no interest in what the Westminster crowd refer to as 'the regions' and have allowed industry there to fall apart across whole swathes of the country - including Merseyside. We can thank the EU for its regeneration via the huge amounts of 'Objective one' money that has been spent here.

A few years back, the 'Policy Exchange' - a right-wing think tank set up by Nicholas Boles, Michael Gove and Francis Maude - published a paper suggesting 'the North' was finished and had no future, and advising people to move south! If that is not dereliction of the duty of government on an Olympic scale, I don't know what is!

You don't have to look outside the M25 to find the real reason for the UK's downward spiral. It has been our governments that have run this country, not the EU.
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Trade deficit - 10th Oct 2017 10:30pm
Originally Posted by Excoriator
Original, but quite wrong. The EU doesn't prevent Germany running a huge trade surplus, and they operate under the identical rules to us.

We do badly because our governments (Labours as well) have no interest in what the Westminster crowd refer to as 'the regions' and have allowed industry there to fall apart across whole swathes of the country - including Merseyside. We can thank the EU for its regeneration via the huge amounts of 'Objective one' money that has been spent here.

A few years back, the 'Policy Exchange' - a right-wing think tank set up by Nicholas Boles, Michael Gove and Francis Maude - published a paper suggesting 'the North' was finished and had no future, and advising people to move south! If that is not dereliction of the duty of government on an Olympic scale, I don't know what is!

You don't have to look outside the M25 to find the real reason for the UK's downward spiral. It has been our governments that have run this country, not the EU.


But as you say, the investment money (objective one funding which originates from us) has been controlled by Europe, getting things done correctly with one hurdle would be easier than two.

One thing that needs to happen in this country is the media shouldn't use the Government's lead on using misleading terms and figures, we should know debt not deficit and GDP is one of the most meaningless figures ever invented, employment and unemployment figures are also meaningless in their current state.

The biggest problem in many of the biggest economies in the world is the distribution of wealth, when the rich are the ones making the decisions on wealth it is never going to have a happy outcome.
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Trade deficit - 11th Oct 2017 8:34am
GDP is a measure of economic activity and not terribly meaningful.

The trade surplus or (in our case) deficit is a much better measure of how we are doing as a country.

The neglect of every part of the UK except London and its surroundings is a disgrace though, and it is getting worse rather than better. It is no wonder Scotland and Wales are disenchanted. Both are quite likely to leave the UK within the next few years.
The Northwest of the UK has done very well out of the EU, as has the Northeast. It is baffling that so many people want to go back to seeing new opera houses, railway infrastructure, garden bridges and the like going up in London whilst our infrastructure falls apart.

The sad fact is that we have had better governance from teh EU than we've had from Westminster.
Posted By: Gibbo Re: Trade deficit - 12th Oct 2017 9:03am
Originally Posted by diggingdeeper
We can’t earn our way because we are in the EU.

Our trade with the EU is not enough to support us.

The EU prevents us from trading properly with most of the world.

We can’t carry on as we are, something has to be done, the EU have done nothing to allow us to improve our trade balance. We will be Greece in a few years time.


I think that's more just blaming the EU for our own failings and using them as an excuse.

I'll be happy to be proved wrong when we leave the EU and have so much surplus cash lying around we'll be wiping our backsides with £10 notes.

Hmm, scratch that, they're made of plastic now so will be like using that stuff we had in school.
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Trade deficit - 12th Oct 2017 9:42am
You may find £20 or even £50 notes cheaper than even the stuff we all recall from school!

I notice Bitcoin has reached a new record high, shrugging off negative comment from various banks around the world. Might prove to be safer than the pound in the long run. It's worth remembering that in practice, no bank or government can tell you to stick to a particular currency if people decide they prefer something else. Bitcoin, in particular, is not controlled by either.
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Trade deficit - 12th Oct 2017 11:13am
Michel Barnier, today, says there has been "no great step forward" in talks about the brexit divorce part of the agreement.

It makes little difference what bullshit emanates from the useless Davis of course. Barnier's opinion is all that counts regarding whether sufficient or indeed any progress has been achieved. His careful diplomatic language can be translated into plain English to mean we are nowhere near even starting talks about trade. In other words, we are still heading for a 'hard brexit'.

I certainly didn't vote for this, and I doubt very much that even many of those that voted to leave in the referendum did either, because it will mean a massive exodus of work and trade from the UK. Sixty percent of what we currently export will suddenly become subject to tariff making it more expensive for our customers in the EU. How much this sixty percent will be lost as a result is anyone's guess, but even a small drop is more than we can afford. A hard brexit will mean that UK banks will be unable to trade within the Eurozone, so there is no business case for staying in London. Most if not all have already made careful plans for this eventuality and will lose no time in departing. Many manufacturing companies - set up by Japanese, Chinese, American etc. manufacturers in the UK as their EU manufacturing centre - will follow them. It makes no sense for people like Sony, say, to pay duty on products made in the UK when they can set up a plant in Poland and avoid it. This will happen more slowly so as to not upset UK customers, but it is bound to happen too.

We could, of course, impose tariffs on UK imports from the EU, but the effects on them would be much more tolerable, it being only 16% of their total exports. Moreover, we would find a lot of European good becoming overnight more expensive. Much of this is agricultural. Food in other words. It will go up in price, partly because of the tariffs that have to be paid, and partly due to the drop in the value of the pound which will no doubt occur. Take a LOT more money with you when you go to the supermarket after we leave!

We desperately need to give the British People a chance to vote on whether we want any of this in a second referendum, or indeed the House of Commons needs to exercise its sovereignty and stop this ludicrous piece of self-harm now.
Posted By: jimbob Re: Trade deficit - 12th Oct 2017 12:14pm
we have had the referendum. So unless your Irish and intend to continue voting until the result is what the ruling class wants then stop moaning
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Trade deficit - 12th Oct 2017 12:47pm
Originally Posted by Excoriator
Michel Barnier, today, says there has been "no great step forward" in talks about the brexit divorce part of the agreement.

It makes little difference what bullshit emanates from the useless Davis of course. Barnier's opinion is all that counts regarding whether sufficient or indeed any progress has been achieved. His careful diplomatic language can be translated into plain English to mean we are nowhere near even starting talks about trade. In other words, we are still heading for a 'hard brexit'.

I certainly didn't vote for this, and I doubt very much that even many of those that voted to leave in the referendum did either, because it will mean a massive exodus of work and trade from the UK. Sixty percent of what we currently export will suddenly become subject to tariff making it more expensive for our customers in the EU. How much this sixty percent will be lost as a result is anyone's guess, but even a small drop is more than we can afford. A hard brexit will mean that UK banks will be unable to trade within the Eurozone, so there is no business case for staying in London. Most if not all have already made careful plans for this eventuality and will lose no time in departing. Many manufacturing companies - set up by Japanese, Chinese, American etc. manufacturers in the UK as their EU manufacturing centre - will follow them. It makes no sense for people like Sony, say, to pay duty on products made in the UK when they can set up a plant in Poland and avoid it. This will happen more slowly so as to not upset UK customers, but it is bound to happen too.

We could, of course, impose tariffs on UK imports from the EU, but the effects on them would be much more tolerable, it being only 16% of their total exports. Moreover, we would find a lot of European good becoming overnight more expensive. Much of this is agricultural. Food in other words. It will go up in price, partly because of the tariffs that have to be paid, and partly due to the drop in the value of the pound which will no doubt occur. Take a LOT more money with you when you go to the supermarket after we leave!

We desperately need to give the British People a chance to vote on whether we want any of this in a second referendum, or indeed the House of Commons needs to exercise its sovereignty and stop this ludicrous piece of self-harm now.


We currently pay extra for food that comes from outside the EU, that food will be cheaper.

Any tariffs the EU impose on us we will also impose on EU goods, as we are in trade deficit with the EU we will gain more in our tariffs than we lose on EU tariffs. This tariff surplus is not allowed to be used to subsidise UK goods but it can be used to reduce taxes on business in the UK which could bring prices back into line.

Companies like Sony etc already have factories around the rest of Europe, they chase grants and they will no doubt use Brexit as another excuse to get grants or leave, this happens all the time anyway, its basically extortion. This is a big chance for British businesses to up their game, without EU imposed restrictions we will have a lot more flexibility.

Personally I have no problem with paying a small premium for British goods (or non-EU goods) as long as they are of similar quality.

The UK is a pretty big market, most international companies will still want to trade with the UK, they will find a happy medium with the UK. Look at the amount of cars that are produced in right hand drive, its obviously a market they want to pursue otherwise they would stick to LHD. Interestingly the other main RHD markets are Australia, Japan and Pakistan (I think? Not sure of China?) and yet the two markets aren't tied together, there are loads of Australian cars not available in UK and vice-versa.

Yes, we will have a dip in our currency, the whole financial system is based on currency instability to make a profit, they look for any excuse to force changes.

Recovery is possible, look at Ireland.

Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Trade deficit - 12th Oct 2017 12:56pm
Originally Posted by Gibbo
Originally Posted by diggingdeeper
We can’t earn our way because we are in the EU.

Our trade with the EU is not enough to support us.

The EU prevents us from trading properly with most of the world.

We can’t carry on as we are, something has to be done, the EU have done nothing to allow us to improve our trade balance. We will be Greece in a few years time.


I think that's more just blaming the EU for our own failings and using them as an excuse.


Fact: Our trade with the EU is not enough to support us.

Fact: The EU prevents us from trading properly with most of the world. It is a protectionist system that prevents individual EU countries from trading with the rest of the world.
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Trade deficit - 12th Oct 2017 6:29pm
Quote
we have had the referendum. So unless your Irish and intend to continue voting until the result is what the ruling class wants then stop moaning


That we've had one referendum is not a reason to stop another. In fact, its quite a good reason to go ahead and have another!

Don't you want our fellow Brits to have their say?
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Trade deficit - 12th Oct 2017 6:36pm
Quote
Recovery is possible, look at Ireland.


It did so with EU membership helping. We will have no help from anyone.

This government has made things universally worse since it got into power. Do you think they are suddenly going to become more competent due to being allowed to do what the hell they like?
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Trade deficit - 12th Oct 2017 8:47pm
Originally Posted by Excoriator
This government has made things universally worse since it got into power. Do you think they are suddenly going to become more competent due to being allowed to do what the hell they like?


Unlike the EU they will be answerable to the British public, of course the Government will not be able to use the EU as an excuse any longer either.

Originally Posted by Excoriator
Quote
Recovery is possible, look at Ireland.


It did so with EU membership helping. We will have no help from anyone.


The EU funding was a double-edged sword, it came conditional on austerity measures, many of which were unnecessary and had very little to do with the recovery. If the funding had come purely from the IMF the measures would have been much more realistic.
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Trade deficit - 13th Oct 2017 12:02am
You cannot seriously be advancing Ireland's recovery as justification for the UK leaving the EU?
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Trade deficit - 13th Oct 2017 2:34am
Originally Posted by Excoriator
You cannot seriously be advancing Ireland's recovery as justification for the UK leaving the EU?


I wasn't, but now you mention it, some of the unjustified EU imposed austerity measures on Ireland are typical of why I don't trust the EU, there was absolutely no need other than dominance.

Germany have followed their planned post-war path almost to the letter, its about 25% behind schedule which isn't bad at all compared to any other long term Government project.

The Fourth Reich is here and we are blindly letting it progress. Germany has taken financial control, border control and currency control. How many EU countries really wanted the migrant intake, did they get any real say in the matter - no!
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Trade deficit - 13th Oct 2017 9:39am
Fourth Reich indeed!

Even if it were true, its done more for the traditionally deprived areas of the UK than our own government.

As to the EU imposing restrictions on Ireland, you cannot really blame them wanting to ensure that money lent was spent on sensible things, not frittered away on garden bridges across the Liffey. It seems to have done the trick anyway. The patient seems well again.

And I admire Germany's response to migrants many of whom were driven out of their homes by UK supplied weapons.Would that our own government had the same humane attitude to folk in desperate need.
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Trade deficit - 13th Oct 2017 2:44pm
Originally Posted by Excoriator
its done more for the traditionally deprived areas of the UK than our own government


Not at all, apart from Merseyside and a couple of other small pockets, the various Governments have rebuilt a lot of the country since WW2, it generally progressed from city are to city area, you can't do everything the same day. Unfortunately Merseyside never put a strong enough case forward to get higher priority despite suffering so much damage during WW2.

One thing that slowed us down was we had to concentrate on getting Germany back on its feet as a priority. WW2 was caused primarily by the restrictions put on Germany after WW1 whereby Germany could not possibly recover. It was agreed (probably quite rightly) that to prevent a recurrence of this that Germany had to be rebuilt and placed into a position whereby it could become successful again. Various people in Germany realised this and took full advantage of it by stealth.

The EU only imposes another level of restrictions on rebuilding the UK, all the proposals and decisions come from UK Council's and the UK Government but the EU rules veto some. Furthermore the EU takes a cut out of that same money which originates from the UK.

Yes there will have been some benefits gained from the EU but these could well be very minor compared to what could have happened.

The EU acts the same as a bank manager does for a business, the business wants to do something so wants funds from the bank, the bank restricts those funds and also takes a cut. You could argue the bank does some good but I think you will find far more find it unduly restrictive most of the time.

We have now generated yet another layer of political interference in the form of City Regions, the hierarchy is getting far too long. Local Councils should be able to apply for funding directly to the (one) Government, that way there will be two authorities in the chain to prevent basic roguery and both are directly answerable to the general public.

Posted By: Excoriator Re: Trade deficit - 13th Oct 2017 9:58pm
The Westminster governments have had YEARS to get other cities up to a comparable level to London, and they have failed. Merseyside in particular was written off under Thatcher.

But we shall see. It looks very much as if we are heading for no agreement whatsoever, and God knows how we will manage then. It has disaster written all over it. I think you are deluded to imagine it will be better. It quite obviously won't be.

No doubt it will all be the EU's fault in the Mail and the Barmy Express and from various government sources. And no doubt most brexiteers will prefer that explanation to their own foolishness in voting to leave.
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Trade deficit - 13th Oct 2017 11:07pm
The EU want a trade deal but wouldn't negotiate it, very simple fact. Either you are in for negotiations or out, the EU made their choice clear. Effectively they wanted us to pay them a bribe to allow us to negotiate.

Balls in the EU's court now, either negotiate or walk away.

The EU has made no proposals other than "give us a wad of cash".

The EU argue both ways on the Irish border - "there must be a border between Ireland and the UK but there can't be a border", their last ditch blockage to ensure a stalemate decision.

They have wasted so much of our money in the past and now they continue. We are the second largest contributor to the EU yet we aren't the second by population (3rd) or area (11th?), we were a great cash-cow for Germany's ambitions.
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Trade deficit - 14th Oct 2017 9:00am
I am not sure the EU cares whether we get a trade deal or not. It is something quite separate from brexit, which can come later, and is far less important to them than to us. At worse, it affects only 16% of their exports, and any tariffs we impose will probably result in a reduction by less than this. They are no doubt well aware that tariff barriers will result in our banking industry moving to them, and many of our manufacturers following. Overall the effect on them will be neutral. I don't think they would worry too much if there were no trade agreement.

They want, first, to establish agreement on the status of foreigners (on either side), how the northern Ireland border will be handled, and for the UK to pay its share of commitments made before the referendum. Perfectly reasonable to want to do these three essential parts of the separation first before moving on to future trading relations.

If the UK refuses to engage with these three matters and come to some agreement acceptable to both sides, then there will be no trade discussions. You cannot blame the EU for this sort of stupid refusal to discuss these matters first. You cannot, surely, believe that the departure of the UK - however it is done - will have much effect on the burgeoning EU economy.

It will have a very bad effect on us, I believe, even if our departure is handled well. If - as is clearly the case - it is done badly, it will be far, far worse. A 'no deal' departure would be a disaster, and if it happens there is nobody to blame for it but us.
Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Trade deficit - 14th Oct 2017 11:52am
16% of the whole EU but have you seen how it affects individual countries and their sectors. Poland is an obvious second leaver and the UK could do a lot of trade with them.
Posted By: Excoriator Re: Trade deficit - 14th Oct 2017 3:34pm
Poland seems only to be an obvious 'leaver' only to extreme brexiteers. The Deranged Express got very excited about it some time back, but I doubt anyone else took it seriously. Leavers in Poland amount to one or two percent.

As Poland's GDP is less than a fifth of the UK's, I think 'a lot of business' between the two countries would be overegging it a little, at least from the UK's point of view', even if it DID happen!

I was interested to hear of a Yougov poll this week, which put support for brexit in the UK at a record low of 42%. Those who think it is a bad idea amount to 47%. Support for it is clearly waning and given the continuing government chaos over it, and a hard brexit becoming ever more likely, I would not be at all surprised to find it not happening, followed by a dull thud as Farage's head explodes.

Posted By: diggingdeeper Re: Trade deficit - 14th Oct 2017 11:51pm
Originally Posted by Excoriator
As Poland's GDP is less than a fifth of the UK's, I think 'a lot of business' between the two countries would be overegging it a little, at least from the UK's point of view', even if it DID happen!


Yes, I meant from Poland's point of view. If they did leave they would be able to trade with us and not be quite so isolated.

Poland receives a lot of financial support from the EU which they won't want to give up, but they are also feeling that the EU are controlling them using that financial support. The money won't keep coming for much longer, the new waves of members will dilute the pool of money available, as will Brexit.

There are only around nine net benefactors and eighteen net beneficiaries, Poland is by far the biggest beneficiary receiving more than twice the next beneficiary, the UK is second largest benefactor.

Amazingly, Italy is the fourth (and fairly large) biggest benefactor despite their financial situation, I can't see them being happy with that much longer.
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