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Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: granny] #1075480
22nd Mar 2020 2:32pm
22nd Mar 2020 2:32pm
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Originally Posted by granny


Well , I very much doubt even the best engineers never did a procedure such as draining the lungs !


You reveal your ignorance once again.

Much of the equipment used in draining lungs was designed by engineers. The ventilators used were designed by engineers, and all the electronics available in modern medicine was designed by engineers, as was the network supplying oxygen and suction to every hospital bed.

Without engineers you'd be back in the days of leches and nonsense like ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny.

Of the two we'd be better off losing doctors than losing engineers. It took decades to persuade these numpties of things like the existence of microbes and the circulation of blood!



Last edited by Excoriator; 22nd Mar 2020 2:33pm.
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Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: granny] #1075481
22nd Mar 2020 2:34pm
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Originally Posted by granny


I'd bet any money that you wear a thong, Ex !


Bet away Granny! Why should I do anything to save you wasting your money?

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075482
22nd Mar 2020 2:52pm
22nd Mar 2020 2:52pm
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Estimating mortality rate during an epidemic is notoriously difficult. Probably the best you can do is to use the algorithm: deaths / (deaths + survivors) which is asymptotic to the correct answer at the end of the epidemic.

Earlier, it can give ludicrously high readings. On a world basis at the moment we are seeing it rising through about 10% at the moment!

The best we can do at the moment is to look at the Chinese figures. they seem to have contained the original outbreak and the answer won't, therefore, be too inaccurate. Their mortality rate looks like about 4.5%. Even at the end of the outbreak, it is interesting that the death rate seems to be falling as they learn how tt recognise it early and improve their treatment of it, so perhaps the 4.5% is a bit too gloomy.

On the other hand their speedy construction of new hospitals may have improved their mortality rate. Our slow response won't help ours.

Years ago, I attended a mathematics conference in the US and one of the speakers was a virologist who described the mathematics of epidemics and although it's outside my field I found it sufficiently interesting to beard him and buy him a meal during which I extracted as much knowledge as I could from him. I'm no expert - more of an interested spectator, - but found I could follow the maths reasonably well and have remained interested in it ever since.

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075492
22nd Mar 2020 7:50pm
22nd Mar 2020 7:50pm
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Much of the equipment used for draining lungs was a plastic tube with a needle on the end and a bottle. Not much engineering in that.

[img]https://assets.aboutkidshealth.ca/A...terDrainage_PleurX_EN.jpg?RenditionID=10[/img]


Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves. All things are bound together. All things connect.
~Chief Seattle
Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075501
23rd Mar 2020 12:00pm
23rd Mar 2020 12:00pm
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Except that doesn't drain the lungs, it drains the chest cavity outside the lungs.


The further you are down the pay scale, the more 'essential' you are when the s--- hits the fan... Sue Farbysmith 2020

Insults are engendered from vulgar minds, like toadstools from a dunghill - Charles Caleb Colton

We don't do charity in Germany, We pay taxes. Charity is a failure of governments' responsibilities - Henning Wehn
Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: diggingdeeper] #1075509
23rd Mar 2020 2:51pm
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Originally Posted by diggingdeeper
Except that doesn't drain the lungs, it drains the chest cavity outside the lungs.



offtopic grin


Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves. All things are bound together. All things connect.
~Chief Seattle
Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075555
24th Mar 2020 10:22am
24th Mar 2020 10:22am
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So last night the PM comes on the telly and tells everyone from 12.00 midnight [ Monday ] YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED OUT OF YOUR HOMES! Except to buy food, travel to work [ if its still open?] and a little bit of exercise,
If you don't sell food you should be closed!
The post office is open so people can do the lotto, I've seen learner drivers going down the road, small builders going off to work, two women walking close together one pushing a pram with a baby inside etc etc, no one is taking a blind bit of notice and then you wonder why its spreading so quickly!
Before you know it there will be road block's soon, manned by the Army

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075557
24th Mar 2020 10:31am
24th Mar 2020 10:31am
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That’s what we need Keef, these bloody kids causing mayhem all over the place should not be out! The images I’ve seen on tv with the tube in London packed trains ....so glad I dint live down there but feel fir folk who do and relatives who must be so worried about them. Bring the army on I say....

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075560
24th Mar 2020 10:57am
24th Mar 2020 10:57am
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I expect the government is now regretting cutting the numbers of the Army and the police force so severely. According to the Wirral Globe there are now only 15 police constables and 4 sergeants for the whole of Wirral and given that many will be off shift/ on holiday/ sick / on courses, it doesn’t leave many to keep us safe in our beds.Stay safe and well people.

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075581
24th Mar 2020 12:49pm
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Considering they only had 2 operational cars with 2 x police in each in B'head approx. 16 yrs ago, they've done quite well.
There was a police lady draw up at my local garage shop this morning.
Didn't they move towards community police , in the 2000's ? Taking the unemployed off the streets and giving them a position of superiority in a voluntary position ? I remember it well !


Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves. All things are bound together. All things connect.
~Chief Seattle
Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075598
24th Mar 2020 2:24pm
24th Mar 2020 2:24pm
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Mainland UK has never had martial law, only Ireland has. I don't think many would trust Boris to be the first to use it.

Supermarket shelves were filling up again yesterday apart from loo rolls which are expected to get on the shelves in quantity again today. Soap hasn't started to roll again yet for some strange reason


The further you are down the pay scale, the more 'essential' you are when the s--- hits the fan... Sue Farbysmith 2020

Insults are engendered from vulgar minds, like toadstools from a dunghill - Charles Caleb Colton

We don't do charity in Germany, We pay taxes. Charity is a failure of governments' responsibilities - Henning Wehn
Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075599
24th Mar 2020 2:34pm
24th Mar 2020 2:34pm
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Well I think he may be the first to do it DD and I’d welcome it. We’ve got too get a grip on this. Surreal times for surreal actions . Still seeing lots of cars and quite a few people about with kids I may add, strolling up the road quite normally . See Wuhan now virtually clear of it and look how they had to enforce it. Seems no matter how hard the message is a lot of people just ignoring it...

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075601
24th Mar 2020 3:38pm
24th Mar 2020 3:38pm
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Perhaps you don't realise the implication, martial law is military rule and includes the right to shoot people, normal civilian laws go out the window, you have no rights and can be detained without being charged. Effectively it is a self-coup by the Government and once imposed it cannot be opposed, police, parliament and courts would have no powers indefinitely.

This is completely different from having the armed forces assist in civilian policing (with or without special powers).

Being in a car is no risk to yourself or others, if you decide to drive 200 miles for a country walk, there is nothing wrong with it, in fact for many it could be safer than taking a walk round the block for some exercise.

You can't maintain complete lockdown for extended periods of time, in national security it is recommended that the top level is only maintained for a maximum of 3 days because it becomes ineffective due to human nature.

The recycling centres have closed, I think this was an oversight by Boris's rules more than an intentional decision. Public health has always got to be a priority. He also forgot to mention petrol stations but these are remaining open.


The further you are down the pay scale, the more 'essential' you are when the s--- hits the fan... Sue Farbysmith 2020

Insults are engendered from vulgar minds, like toadstools from a dunghill - Charles Caleb Colton

We don't do charity in Germany, We pay taxes. Charity is a failure of governments' responsibilities - Henning Wehn
Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075602
24th Mar 2020 3:53pm
24th Mar 2020 3:53pm
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Yes I agree, now that you say explain it DD but ye armed personnel and given powers to not quite shoot people who don’t do it but certainly strong measures. I heard on lunchtime news , people actually spitting on the police and on people! It’s disgusting... Police , nhs and supermarket staff etc all having to go in and all we are being asked to do is STAY IN!! Don’t think all these cars are driving out to country DD , do you really?

Re: Twelve weeks to beat the virus? [Re: Excoriator] #1075603
24th Mar 2020 4:01pm
24th Mar 2020 4:01pm
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Taken from another forum but exactly what I think. I can’t put the image up so will just say the words.

If you were informed that there was a killer on the streets, randomly targeting innocent people...
But you didn’t know where they were, you couldn’t see them from your window, but you knew they were there...
Would you nip out? Would you let your kids out of the front door?

Powerful statement I think...

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