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#1046191 - 19th Oct 2017 10:22am Crime And Violence *****
diggingdeeper Offline

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Registered: 9th Jul 2008
Posts: 10808
Loc: Birkenhead
5.2 million crimes registered with the police in a year, 1.2 million of which were violence against the person.

Both those figures are horrendous.

SOURCE
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In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#1046193 - 19th Oct 2017 11:06am Re: Crime And Violence [Re: diggingdeeper]
Excoriator Online   content
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Registered: 21st Jan 2010
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Loc: wirral
I wouldn't worry too much. This 'increase' is thought to be down to better methods of recording crime, and indeed may well be the result of police, worried about possible manpower reductions, taking on cases which they would probably have ignored in less threatening (to them) times.

The Crime Survey in England and Wales - which is a much better measure of the crime people actually suffer as it looks at crimes which are not even reported to the police or are not actionable by police as well as those that do - continues to show a fall. These findings are supported by a 10% drop in attendances at A&E departments for violent crime injuries over the last recorded year.

But you can't sell as many newspapers with headlines like "Crime falls" as you can with a cherry-picked bloodthirsty coverage of a particularly horrific incident from the falling number of such crimes as DO occur. Hence the widespread coverage of bad News whilst good News is quietly ignored.

Sadly, this sensationalised coverage has frightened a lot of people so much that they are scared to leave their barricaded burglar alarmed houses after dark, despite the fact that they are probably safer from being attacked than at any time in this country's existence.

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#1046199 - 19th Oct 2017 12:19pm Re: Crime And Violence [Re: diggingdeeper]
granny Offline

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Registered: 29th Jun 2011
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Domestic abuse ..one doesn't have to leave the house, and quite often not 'allowed' to leave the house whilst they show the black eyes from the week before.

People being held up at knife point in their beds ?

There is also the increasing use of cocain, which from all accounts is a 'nasty' drug that creates violent tendencies.

Sexual and rape crimes, can happen anywhere such as hotels and least expected, as we have heard in the last week.

I would think most violence is not necessarily in public view.
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Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves. All things are bound together. All things connect.
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#1046203 - 19th Oct 2017 2:27pm Re: Crime And Violence [Re: granny]
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Quite so Granny. This is why the CSEW was set up. It could record crimes which never make it to the police or public view.

It, however, seems to find these crimes are falling in number.

The CSEW still shows a bigger number of crimes than the police for this reason, but the gap between the two is shrinking, year on year. This means that the percentage of crimes that go unreported is falling or, to put it another way, the police are better at recording them.

The findings of the CSEW are not unique. Crime is falling in nearly all industrialised western countries, and it appears not to be anything to do with the police either. Some police forces had become more lenient, others have become much more proactive, but crime is still falling.

One theory is that it is linked with the abandonment of lead in petrol. The falling crime figures mirror the falling lead levels in the environment delayed by about 20 years. It may be that millions of people have been - in effect - locked up for the heinous crime of having been poisoned as children...

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#1046204 - 19th Oct 2017 2:40pm Re: Crime And Violence [Re: diggingdeeper]
diggingdeeper Offline

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Registered: 9th Jul 2008
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Loc: Birkenhead
I don't care if its an increase or decrease, its far too many either way. Our crime control is ineffective.

I was talking to someone before who had their works van broken into and had to fit security locks and a safe. If all the money we spend on security and repairs from crime was spent on police we could probably have at least one police officer per road.

Crime is a triple tax, we pay to prevent it, we pay to correct it and we pay with our quality of life.
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#1046216 - 19th Oct 2017 3:20pm Re: Crime And Violence [Re: diggingdeeper]
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Registered: 21st Jan 2010
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Originally Posted By: diggingdeeper
I don't care if its an increase or decrease, its far too many either way. Our crime control is ineffective.

I was talking to someone before who had their works van broken into and had to fit security locks and a safe. If all the money we spend on security and repairs from crime was spent on police we could probably have at least one police officer per road.

Crime is a triple tax, we pay to prevent it, we pay to correct it and we pay with our quality of life.


You complain about crime but declare you don't care if it increases??? Surely a decrease is to be welcomed. You are correct in saying our crime prevention measures are ineffective, at least in the tacit assumption that police prevent crime.

You have cherry picked one incident to 'prove' that we need more police. The evidence, however, is that the number of police has little or no effect on crime. Police numbers have fallen by a fifth since 2009, but crime dropped by about 40% over the same period. (Source CSEW).

What is less well known is that a great deal of police effort is now being diverted into fighting terrorism, which given the low number of terrorist attacks seems to be a rather stupid thing to do. The result is that the effective fall in active policing of more conventional crime is even lower than the number of policemen would imply.

You are correct, however, in suggesting we spend far too much on safes and security devices. They are very expensive, and not very effective. Nor are they needed so much as they were.

We could at least reduce the first of your 'triple taxes' by spending less on policing. It is demonstrably ineffective. Indeed one might almost argue that increased police number actually CAUSES crime!

Falling crime figures may well turn out to reflect a move by criminals from the street to the internet. We will know this next year when the CSEW addresses such crimes (it hasn't up to now). However, having policemen tramping the streets will not do much to deter computer crime.

It is worth noting, by the way, that police figures do not meet the necessary recording standards to be good enough to be recognised as 'National Statistics'. This is a set of criteria designed to ensure that the results are accurate. Whilst I would not say the Police figures are valueless, I would treat them with some caution before drawing any conclusions from them.

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#1046234 - 19th Oct 2017 6:33pm Re: Crime And Violence [Re: diggingdeeper]
diggingdeeper Offline

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Registered: 9th Jul 2008
Posts: 10808
Loc: Birkenhead
There is too much crime now and its still too much if it increases, the trivial rate it is decreasing is too slow, crime should be the exception, not the norm.

Or are you trying to say it can't be bad because it could be worse?

The reason that a lot of crime is reducing imho is that people are restricting their perfectly legitimate lifestyles to avoid crime. This isn't crime prevention, its cowering down to criminals due to no choice.

I'd love to know why you trust a private company that competed for the CSEW contract, they cannot possibly be independent, they are a commercial organisation with a primary interest in keeping their contract. They are a large multi-national company with a lot of contracts so they must be well practised at keeping their customers happy. I also don't trust a company involved in statistics that start using words like "holistic" and "innovative methodologies", those words rhyme beautifully with "fiddled figures".
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#1046240 - 19th Oct 2017 8:57pm Re: Crime And Violence [Re: diggingdeeper]
Excoriator Online   content
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Registered: 21st Jan 2010
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Quote:
...the trivial rate it is decreasing is too slow...


I wouldn't call 9% a year trivial. Crime has fallen from nearly 19 million in 1997 to under 6 million a year today and is still falling.

Your claim that crime is falling because everyone is cowering in their bunkers is risible! It is utterly unsupported by any facts whatsoever and quite unrelated to the behaviour of most of the population.

I don't know where you got the private company from. The CSEW is conducted directly by the government. and are part of the ONS. They publish their methodology and have nothing to hide. And I cannot imagine what motive they have for fiddling their figures. How would they gain from it.

This is in enormous contrast to the police statistics (which you clearly believe implicitly). These have been found so unreliable that they are no longer recognised as being adequate to base any policy on.

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#1046247 - 19th Oct 2017 10:38pm Re: Crime And Violence [Re: diggingdeeper]
diggingdeeper Offline

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Registered: 9th Jul 2008
Posts: 10808
Loc: Birkenhead
CSEW has been contracted to Kantar Public since 2001

http://www.crimesurvey.co.uk/AboutKantarPublic.html

Same as most Government contracting out, when the bubble bursts the Government has PTFE shoulders and points the finger elsewhere.

Similar to ATOS and the Work Capability Assessments, ATOS did the tests that the DWP laid down, ATOS wasn't even involved in the decision process, they merely recorded the results of the tests but when it went ape the Government were happy to let ATOS get the blame to the extent that ATOS walked away from the huge profitable contract.
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#1046249 - 19th Oct 2017 11:18pm Re: Crime And Violence [Re: diggingdeeper]
Excoriator Online   content
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Registered: 21st Jan 2010
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So explain why they would fiddle the results DD.

As Poirot would say "We do no 'ave a moteeve, 'Astings!"

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#1046256 - 20th Oct 2017 1:34am Re: Crime And Violence [Re: diggingdeeper]
diggingdeeper Offline

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Registered: 9th Jul 2008
Posts: 10808
Loc: Birkenhead
Politicians, accountability and money, a pretty gruesome mix of a nefarious nature. When you are contracted to the Government you have a good idea of what they want, its in your self-interest to not stray from the yellow brick road.

As you say, CSEW has chosen to ignore Internet Crime up to now, this was a conscious decision to exclude it, a crime is a crime, excluding sections of crime gives a misleading result - do you know what other sections of crime they are excluding? Court records are not available for some crimes, are those crimes included? Are all digital bank frauds linked under "Internet" and ignored even ones that are not Internet related (eg Intranet fraud)?

Its easy to manipulate results even if the figures are "honest", look at the new parliamentary boundaries for the Wirral. We currently have four Labour MP's but the new boundaries mean we will probably have at least one Conservative, at least one Labour and I'm not sure on the other, maybe Labour. That is a heck of a swing in representation, at best it is halfing the Wirral labour representation in parliament (0.6% to 0.3% but if you take the one conservative MP as cancelling out a labour MP it goes from 0.6% to 0.2%) but the numbers (votes) are the same and correct.
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

Top
#1046263 - 20th Oct 2017 9:20am Re: Crime And Violence [Re: diggingdeeper]
Near_Oval Online   Reading
Member

Registered: 23rd Oct 2012
Posts: 71
Loc: Wallasey village
Originally Posted By: diggingdeeper
I don't care if its an increase or decrease, its far too many either way. Our crime control is ineffective.

I was talking to someone before who had their works van broken into and had to fit security locks and a safe. If all the money we spend on security and repairs from crime was spent on police we could probably have at least one police officer per road.

Crime is a triple tax, we pay to prevent it, we pay to correct it and we pay with our quality of life.


We also pay (quite heavily) to insure our 'things'

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#1046274 - 20th Oct 2017 10:37am Re: Crime And Violence [Re: diggingdeeper]
Excoriator Online   content
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Registered: 21st Jan 2010
Posts: 1155
Loc: wirral
Originally Posted By: diggingdeeper
Politicians, accountability and money, a pretty gruesome mix of a nefarious nature. When you are contracted to the Government you have a good idea of what they want, its in your self-interest to not stray from the yellow brick road.

As you say, CSEW has chosen to ignore Internet Crime up to now, this was a conscious decision to exclude it, a crime is a crime, excluding sections of crime gives a misleading result - do you know what other sections of crime they are excluding? Court records are not available for some crimes, are those crimes included? Are all digital bank frauds linked under "Internet" and ignored even ones that are not Internet related (eg Intranet fraud)?

Its easy to manipulate results even if the figures are "honest", look at the new parliamentary boundaries for the Wirral. We currently have four Labour MP's but the new boundaries mean we will probably have at least one Conservative, at least one Labour and I'm not sure on the other, maybe Labour. That is a heck of a swing in representation, at best it is halfing the Wirral labour representation in parliament (0.6% to 0.3% but if you take the one conservative MP as cancelling out a labour MP it goes from 0.6% to 0.2%) but the numbers (votes) are the same and correct.


So you expect us to believe that the politicians pay these people to fiddle the results!

I think this is a bizarre claim. There are thousands of people involved in this, and it is inconceivable that some of them would know about the fiddling, and not go to the press. It is almost certain that someone would, given that large payoffs are available. It is a ludicrous claim and is utterly unsupported by any evidence whatsoever. I believe you have invented it to support your own preference for believing that crime is getting worse. You also fail to comment on the fact that in 1997 the CSEW was reporting figures three or fourttimes as high as the police, and are still reporting more crimes than those from the police. And you ignore that fact that the CSEWs findings are similar to those in similar countries to ours.

As to police figures, they - at best - reflect a subset of crime that occurs too. Much crime goes unreported for a variety of reasons, and offences such as someone refusing to pay rent are not actionable by the police. The CSEW does at least strive to improve its coverage of crime - it didn't 'choose' to ignore computer crime. It didn't exist when the CSEWs brief was originally set and it and will soon include computer crime as it has now becom significant. The police cannot be expected to compile statistics on crimes it cannot act upon or is unaware of. As a matter of interest, many people have bought things on the internet which have either not arrived or have been defective in some way. These are not generally reported to the police as the victims tend to use PayPal or something similar and get a refund. The police cannot cover such figures, but the CSEW can and will.

The fact is that police figures are known to be so unreliable that the government refuses to accept them as good enough to base government policy on. Yet every News bulletin I heard yesterday reported them as if they were 100% accurate. Where the CSEW figures were mentioned (they mostly weren't) they were accompanied by a dismissive comment of some sort.

If you wish to look for corruption, I suggest you look no further than this heavily skewed reporting for it.

Your claims about the boundary changes are equally bizarre. As a lifelong labour voter myself, I regret losing MPs, but I have also to admit that they are fair. The existing boundaries give an unfair advantage to my party, and the changes have been defined and agreed by a cross-party group which contains labour representatives as well as conservative ones.

Movement of people from the country to the big cities confers a growing advantage to labour. In order to get roughly equal numbers of voters in each constituency, you have to make periodic adjustments. The last thing I want is to see more conservative constituencies, but I am not so biased as to see the boundary changes as 'government fiddling'. Presenting boundary changes as evidence of alleged government fiddling is as ludicrous as your claims about CSEW 'fiddling' and does your argument no good whatsoever.

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#1046293 - 20th Oct 2017 4:32pm Re: Crime And Violence [Re: Excoriator]
diggingdeeper Offline

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Registered: 9th Jul 2008
Posts: 10808
Loc: Birkenhead
yes
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#1046542 - 27th Oct 2017 9:29am Re: Crime And Violence [Re: diggingdeeper]
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Registered: 21st Jan 2010
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Those of us who took the trouble to look at the recent CSEW figures which showed crime to be FALLING, rather than the police figures which showed it RISING, can only smile at the latest twist in this story.

The Mail and Torygraph today, both lead with the shocking News that "Although crime is rising", the number of arrests by the police is about half what it was ten years ago. By an amazing coincidence, these arrest figures comply quite well with the falling crime figures produced by the CSEW!

Any reasonable person would conclude that the police claims about rising crime are rubbish, (The Office of National Statistics decided this some years back) but I suspect that the narrative that crime is rising is now far too powerful for it to be damaged by mere facts.

Some people WANT to believe crime is rising, and clutch at any piece of obviously fake News to support it.

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