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#1045561 - 10th Oct 2017 1:26pm Trade deficit
Excoriator Online   content
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Registered: 21st Jan 2010
Posts: 1221
Loc: wirral
I see we managed - as a country - to spend £5.6 billion more than we earned last month. That works out at about £86 pounds per British nose - and that's just this month! Without the money-changers in the City, (with us at least until brexit) the deficit would have been much worse. £14 billion, or £215 each for the month.

Looking at the deficit figure, it is getting rapidly worse every month. The hope that the brexit referendum drop in the pound helping exports seems not to have materialised. I can't see this getting any better with brexit, not even a 'soft' one, and a hard one would make things a LOT worse.

Does any of this matter? Sadly, yes it does. We are living on tick, and our creditors will eventually decide enough is enough. When they do, we will see a MASSIVE drop in the value of the pound, rip-roaring inflation and a massive influx of expatriate pensioners who will suddenly find their pension in Euros is worth peanuts.

I am normally a fairly optimistic person, but I can see NO good coming from brexit, or this government who evidently cannot make the country earn its way even before brexit was even a possibility. Stockpiling tinned food it appearing to be a sensible thing to do.

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#1045564 - 10th Oct 2017 2:13pm Re: Trade deficit [Re: Excoriator]
diggingdeeper Offline

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Registered: 9th Jul 2008
Posts: 10932
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We canít earn our way because we are in the EU.

Our trade with the EU is not enough to support us.

The EU prevents us from trading properly with most of the world.

We canít carry on as we are, something has to be done, the EU have done nothing to allow us to improve our trade balance. We will be Greece in a few years time.
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#1045568 - 10th Oct 2017 4:18pm Re: Trade deficit [Re: Excoriator]
Excoriator Online   content
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Original, but quite wrong. The EU doesn't prevent Germany running a huge trade surplus, and they operate under the identical rules to us.

We do badly because our governments (Labours as well) have no interest in what the Westminster crowd refer to as 'the regions' and have allowed industry there to fall apart across whole swathes of the country - including Merseyside. We can thank the EU for its regeneration via the huge amounts of 'Objective one' money that has been spent here.

A few years back, the 'Policy Exchange' - a right-wing think tank set up by Nicholas Boles, Michael Gove and Francis Maude - published a paper suggesting 'the North' was finished and had no future, and advising people to move south! If that is not dereliction of the duty of government on an Olympic scale, I don't know what is!

You don't have to look outside the M25 to find the real reason for the UK's downward spiral. It has been our governments that have run this country, not the EU.

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#1045609 - 10th Oct 2017 11:30pm Re: Trade deficit [Re: Excoriator]
diggingdeeper Offline

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Registered: 9th Jul 2008
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Originally Posted By: Excoriator
Original, but quite wrong. The EU doesn't prevent Germany running a huge trade surplus, and they operate under the identical rules to us.

We do badly because our governments (Labours as well) have no interest in what the Westminster crowd refer to as 'the regions' and have allowed industry there to fall apart across whole swathes of the country - including Merseyside. We can thank the EU for its regeneration via the huge amounts of 'Objective one' money that has been spent here.

A few years back, the 'Policy Exchange' - a right-wing think tank set up by Nicholas Boles, Michael Gove and Francis Maude - published a paper suggesting 'the North' was finished and had no future, and advising people to move south! If that is not dereliction of the duty of government on an Olympic scale, I don't know what is!

You don't have to look outside the M25 to find the real reason for the UK's downward spiral. It has been our governments that have run this country, not the EU.


But as you say, the investment money (objective one funding which originates from us) has been controlled by Europe, getting things done correctly with one hurdle would be easier than two.

One thing that needs to happen in this country is the media shouldn't use the Government's lead on using misleading terms and figures, we should know debt not deficit and GDP is one of the most meaningless figures ever invented, employment and unemployment figures are also meaningless in their current state.

The biggest problem in many of the biggest economies in the world is the distribution of wealth, when the rich are the ones making the decisions on wealth it is never going to have a happy outcome.
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#1045613 - 11th Oct 2017 9:34am Re: Trade deficit [Re: Excoriator]
Excoriator Online   content
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GDP is a measure of economic activity and not terribly meaningful.

The trade surplus or (in our case) deficit is a much better measure of how we are doing as a country.

The neglect of every part of the UK except London and its surroundings is a disgrace though, and it is getting worse rather than better. It is no wonder Scotland and Wales are disenchanted. Both are quite likely to leave the UK within the next few years.
The Northwest of the UK has done very well out of the EU, as has the Northeast. It is baffling that so many people want to go back to seeing new opera houses, railway infrastructure, garden bridges and the like going up in London whilst our infrastructure falls apart.

The sad fact is that we have had better governance from teh EU than we've had from Westminster.

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#1045659 - 12th Oct 2017 10:03am Re: Trade deficit [Re: diggingdeeper]
Gibbo Offline
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Registered: 27th Dec 2010
Posts: 1842
Loc: Oxton
Originally Posted By: diggingdeeper
We canít earn our way because we are in the EU.

Our trade with the EU is not enough to support us.

The EU prevents us from trading properly with most of the world.

We canít carry on as we are, something has to be done, the EU have done nothing to allow us to improve our trade balance. We will be Greece in a few years time.


I think that's more just blaming the EU for our own failings and using them as an excuse.

I'll be happy to be proved wrong when we leave the EU and have so much surplus cash lying around we'll be wiping our backsides with £10 notes.

Hmm, scratch that, they're made of plastic now so will be like using that stuff we had in school.

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#1045661 - 12th Oct 2017 10:42am Re: Trade deficit [Re: Excoriator]
Excoriator Online   content
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Registered: 21st Jan 2010
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You may find £20 or even £50 notes cheaper than even the stuff we all recall from school!

I notice Bitcoin has reached a new record high, shrugging off negative comment from various banks around the world. Might prove to be safer than the pound in the long run. It's worth remembering that in practice, no bank or government can tell you to stick to a particular currency if people decide they prefer something else. Bitcoin, in particular, is not controlled by either.

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#1045668 - 12th Oct 2017 12:13pm Re: Trade deficit [Re: Excoriator]
Excoriator Online   content
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Michel Barnier, today, says there has been "no great step forward" in talks about the brexit divorce part of the agreement.

It makes little difference what bullshit emanates from the useless Davis of course. Barnier's opinion is all that counts regarding whether sufficient or indeed any progress has been achieved. His careful diplomatic language can be translated into plain English to mean we are nowhere near even starting talks about trade. In other words, we are still heading for a 'hard brexit'.

I certainly didn't vote for this, and I doubt very much that even many of those that voted to leave in the referendum did either, because it will mean a massive exodus of work and trade from the UK. Sixty percent of what we currently export will suddenly become subject to tariff making it more expensive for our customers in the EU. How much this sixty percent will be lost as a result is anyone's guess, but even a small drop is more than we can afford. A hard brexit will mean that UK banks will be unable to trade within the Eurozone, so there is no business case for staying in London. Most if not all have already made careful plans for this eventuality and will lose no time in departing. Many manufacturing companies - set up by Japanese, Chinese, American etc. manufacturers in the UK as their EU manufacturing centre - will follow them. It makes no sense for people like Sony, say, to pay duty on products made in the UK when they can set up a plant in Poland and avoid it. This will happen more slowly so as to not upset UK customers, but it is bound to happen too.

We could, of course, impose tariffs on UK imports from the EU, but the effects on them would be much more tolerable, it being only 16% of their total exports. Moreover, we would find a lot of European good becoming overnight more expensive. Much of this is agricultural. Food in other words. It will go up in price, partly because of the tariffs that have to be paid, and partly due to the drop in the value of the pound which will no doubt occur. Take a LOT more money with you when you go to the supermarket after we leave!

We desperately need to give the British People a chance to vote on whether we want any of this in a second referendum, or indeed the House of Commons needs to exercise its sovereignty and stop this ludicrous piece of self-harm now.


Edited by Excoriator (12th Oct 2017 12:16pm)

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#1045679 - 12th Oct 2017 1:14pm Re: Trade deficit [Re: Excoriator]
jimbob Online   content

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Registered: 26th Nov 2008
Posts: 1559
Loc: Birkenhead
we have had the referendum. So unless your Irish and intend to continue voting until the result is what the ruling class wants then stop moaning
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#1045680 - 12th Oct 2017 1:47pm Re: Trade deficit [Re: Excoriator]
diggingdeeper Offline

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Registered: 9th Jul 2008
Posts: 10932
Loc: Birkenhead
Originally Posted By: Excoriator
Michel Barnier, today, says there has been "no great step forward" in talks about the brexit divorce part of the agreement.

It makes little difference what bullshit emanates from the useless Davis of course. Barnier's opinion is all that counts regarding whether sufficient or indeed any progress has been achieved. His careful diplomatic language can be translated into plain English to mean we are nowhere near even starting talks about trade. In other words, we are still heading for a 'hard brexit'.

I certainly didn't vote for this, and I doubt very much that even many of those that voted to leave in the referendum did either, because it will mean a massive exodus of work and trade from the UK. Sixty percent of what we currently export will suddenly become subject to tariff making it more expensive for our customers in the EU. How much this sixty percent will be lost as a result is anyone's guess, but even a small drop is more than we can afford. A hard brexit will mean that UK banks will be unable to trade within the Eurozone, so there is no business case for staying in London. Most if not all have already made careful plans for this eventuality and will lose no time in departing. Many manufacturing companies - set up by Japanese, Chinese, American etc. manufacturers in the UK as their EU manufacturing centre - will follow them. It makes no sense for people like Sony, say, to pay duty on products made in the UK when they can set up a plant in Poland and avoid it. This will happen more slowly so as to not upset UK customers, but it is bound to happen too.

We could, of course, impose tariffs on UK imports from the EU, but the effects on them would be much more tolerable, it being only 16% of their total exports. Moreover, we would find a lot of European good becoming overnight more expensive. Much of this is agricultural. Food in other words. It will go up in price, partly because of the tariffs that have to be paid, and partly due to the drop in the value of the pound which will no doubt occur. Take a LOT more money with you when you go to the supermarket after we leave!

We desperately need to give the British People a chance to vote on whether we want any of this in a second referendum, or indeed the House of Commons needs to exercise its sovereignty and stop this ludicrous piece of self-harm now.


We currently pay extra for food that comes from outside the EU, that food will be cheaper.

Any tariffs the EU impose on us we will also impose on EU goods, as we are in trade deficit with the EU we will gain more in our tariffs than we lose on EU tariffs. This tariff surplus is not allowed to be used to subsidise UK goods but it can be used to reduce taxes on business in the UK which could bring prices back into line.

Companies like Sony etc already have factories around the rest of Europe, they chase grants and they will no doubt use Brexit as another excuse to get grants or leave, this happens all the time anyway, its basically extortion. This is a big chance for British businesses to up their game, without EU imposed restrictions we will have a lot more flexibility.

Personally I have no problem with paying a small premium for British goods (or non-EU goods) as long as they are of similar quality.

The UK is a pretty big market, most international companies will still want to trade with the UK, they will find a happy medium with the UK. Look at the amount of cars that are produced in right hand drive, its obviously a market they want to pursue otherwise they would stick to LHD. Interestingly the other main RHD markets are Australia, Japan and Pakistan (I think? Not sure of China?) and yet the two markets aren't tied together, there are loads of Australian cars not available in UK and vice-versa.

Yes, we will have a dip in our currency, the whole financial system is based on currency instability to make a profit, they look for any excuse to force changes.

Recovery is possible, look at Ireland.
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#1045681 - 12th Oct 2017 1:56pm Re: Trade deficit [Re: Gibbo]
diggingdeeper Offline

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Registered: 9th Jul 2008
Posts: 10932
Loc: Birkenhead
Originally Posted By: Gibbo
Originally Posted By: diggingdeeper
We canít earn our way because we are in the EU.

Our trade with the EU is not enough to support us.

The EU prevents us from trading properly with most of the world.

We canít carry on as we are, something has to be done, the EU have done nothing to allow us to improve our trade balance. We will be Greece in a few years time.


I think that's more just blaming the EU for our own failings and using them as an excuse.


Fact: Our trade with the EU is not enough to support us.

Fact: The EU prevents us from trading properly with most of the world. It is a protectionist system that prevents individual EU countries from trading with the rest of the world.
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#1045689 - 12th Oct 2017 7:29pm Re: Trade deficit [Re: jimbob]
Excoriator Online   content
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Registered: 21st Jan 2010
Posts: 1221
Loc: wirral
Quote:
we have had the referendum. So unless your Irish and intend to continue voting until the result is what the ruling class wants then stop moaning


That we've had one referendum is not a reason to stop another. In fact, its quite a good reason to go ahead and have another!

Don't you want our fellow Brits to have their say?


Edited by Excoriator (12th Oct 2017 7:29pm)

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#1045690 - 12th Oct 2017 7:36pm Re: Trade deficit [Re: Excoriator]
Excoriator Online   content
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Registered: 21st Jan 2010
Posts: 1221
Loc: wirral
Quote:
Recovery is possible, look at Ireland.


It did so with EU membership helping. We will have no help from anyone.

This government has made things universally worse since it got into power. Do you think they are suddenly going to become more competent due to being allowed to do what the hell they like?

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#1045691 - 12th Oct 2017 9:47pm Re: Trade deficit [Re: Excoriator]
diggingdeeper Offline

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Registered: 9th Jul 2008
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Originally Posted By: Excoriator
This government has made things universally worse since it got into power. Do you think they are suddenly going to become more competent due to being allowed to do what the hell they like?


Unlike the EU they will be answerable to the British public, of course the Government will not be able to use the EU as an excuse any longer either.

Originally Posted By: Excoriator
Quote:
Recovery is possible, look at Ireland.


It did so with EU membership helping. We will have no help from anyone.


The EU funding was a double-edged sword, it came conditional on austerity measures, many of which were unnecessary and had very little to do with the recovery. If the funding had come purely from the IMF the measures would have been much more realistic.
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#1045692 - 13th Oct 2017 1:02am Re: Trade deficit [Re: Excoriator]
Excoriator Online   content
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Registered: 21st Jan 2010
Posts: 1221
Loc: wirral
You cannot seriously be advancing Ireland's recovery as justification for the UK leaving the EU?

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