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#998897 - 23rd Jan 2016 10:27am Autonomous cars
venice Offline

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Registered: 21st Jul 2011
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Who things they are a good thing or a bad idea on the roads?

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#998899 - 23rd Jan 2016 11:00am Re: Autonomous cars [Re: venice]
diggingdeeper Offline

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Registered: 9th Jul 2008
Posts: 9549
Loc: Birkenhead
We are crazy if we don't go down this route. Less pollution, less traffic jams, less roads to be built, less accidents.

We generally don't have automatics or cruise control here so I can imagine its going to be a fight.

I have some classic cars but I guess they will eventually be relegated to non-public roads.
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#998902 - 23rd Jan 2016 11:10am Re: Autonomous cars [Re: venice]
venice Offline

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Do you have confidence DD when you see how many computor problems we have one way and another ?

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#998906 - 23rd Jan 2016 11:26am Re: Autonomous cars [Re: venice]
diggingdeeper Offline

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Aeroplanes have used electronics an computers for years. Lifts have, trains have, ships have etc. medicine and food is produced using computers. Our utilities use computers.

It's not difficult nor expensive to build in autonomous redundancy checks above and beyond.
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#998913 - 23rd Jan 2016 11:46am Re: Autonomous cars [Re: diggingdeeper]
venice Offline

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Originally Posted By: diggingdeeper
Aeroplanes have used electronics an computers for years. Lifts have, trains have, ships have etc. medicine and food is produced using computers. Our utilities use computers.

It's not difficult nor expensive to build in autonomous redundancy checks above and beyond.


I think the difference in my eyes ,causing my doubt, is the fact that roads are so cluttered , in a very random way - so many variables. Human beings all with their own agenda, changing their minds by the minute on what direction they want and resetting, random decisions to move by bicycles, peds, animals large and small etc. Would all the cars talk to each other electronically ? What would happen if Mr X driving along , turned back to manual to suddenly turn right, and knocked off course an autonomous car that couldnt adjust its direction in time ? Wouldnt there be a risk of the latter 'going randomly awry ' if damaged , and causing mayhem?
Also with the things you cited, there is generally a human watching over the system who can see the whole picture , which you wouldnt get if you were an individual in a car.
I can see it working with trains on rails, with lorries on those long boring little used transport routes in the world, and with planes where there is less unpredictability and a manual screen overseer, but ordinary domestic cars on local roads -- mmmm I dont know.


Computors regularly allow too much fluoride/ chlorine into water supplies, factory computors tell you sometimes stock remains which doesnt, and so on. The whole thing makes me nervous

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#998917 - 23rd Jan 2016 12:10pm Re: Autonomous cars [Re: venice]
diggingdeeper Offline

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Registered: 9th Jul 2008
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Excessive fluoride is not a computer error in the far greater number of cases.

Yes, the cars should talk to each other but there will be an interim period where they may not.

There should not be manual override, just a stop button.
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#998972 - 23rd Jan 2016 8:01pm Re: Autonomous cars [Re: venice]
Excoriator Online   content
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Registered: 21st Jan 2010
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I think its a mad science fiction idea. Venice is right. Although ships and planes use software control, they are only used there when there is no traffic. The claims that they will lead to no traffic jams and safer motoring are based on nothing but optimism. My bet is that in order to do it the car would need to be at least as intelligent as a human, and we are a long way from that.

There are also moral questions that are not even satisfactorily solved by human beings which would need to be set out in detail. For instance, a child runs out, and the car has the choice of hitting it or a group of people on the pavement.

How on earth anyone expects a computer program to handle such a case baffles everyone. I doubt there is a workable program that is even capable of recognising the age of a person in poor driving conditions even!

Finally, as Venice points out, software is untestable under all possible conditions, and when it goes wrong, it can do almost anything. The designers of the systems used to guide aircraft are well aware of this and use multiple computers and take a majority vote. They even go so far as to ensure that the development teams are kept completely separate and have not been educated together or worked together to ensure as far as is possible the computers will not go wrong in the same way at the same time. Even then, human flight traffic controllers are used to keep aircraft well apart on landing and take off.

And who pays for the damage if your car makes a wrong decision? Your insurance? The software developer? I guess its great News for m'learned friends anyway!

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#998983 - 23rd Jan 2016 9:58pm Re: Autonomous cars [Re: venice]
diggingdeeper Offline

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There are many planes that are under continuous computer control, they are un-flyable without the computer doing most of the work, the pilot says what he wants the aircraft to do, the computer decides what the aircraft will do and how it will do it, the pilot cannot override the computer easily.

Some planes can land themselves though I don't think this is allowed as yet - but it does happen.

The child running out and deadlock scenario:- the computer has at least half a second and realistically more like 2 seconds advantage over a human driver. Unlike a human driver it will know what limits the car can achieve, many humans slam the brakes on and attempt a 90 degree turn - the car will become unpredictable, whatever the human decided to do morally just won't happen, iirc at least 30% of humans close their eyes, over 20% let go of the steering wheel and over 10% totally freeze. Most humans haven't got a clue in a real emergency, they are not used to it and the two main instincts of fight or flight are not conducive with control.

I would imagine that in a deadlock situation like that the computer would be programmed to stop, honk the horn and stay going in the direction of travel - that way it is predictable to 3rd parties and gives them the best chance.

The computer would see the situations arising and be programmed to slow down before hand - humans assess the probability and often decide to take the risk and do not slow down "its ok, they are bound to see me" attitude.

The computer has the advantage that it is 100% aware all the time, its anticipation is much greater, there is less risk factor allowed, it has 360 vision continuously, its reaction time is hugely faster.

If I had a shielding device on a starship, I would prefer it to be operated automatically by computer than someone with a button waiting to press it.

Yes there will still be obscure accidents but there will be far less of them.

I don't like the totally independent development that is happening, the government should produce an outline - eg the autonomous cars must talk to others, types and amounts of redundancy, under "normal braking", the brake lights must be lit 2 seconds before slowing etc.

As I said previously, redundancy systems add very little to the price, the electronics is cheap, basic sensors for redundancy are cheap.

There needs to be an arbitration system, if two autonomous cars are meeting in opposite directions and the road narrows to a single lane between them, who goes first must be negotiated between the two vehicles. At the moment the cars will hand control back to the human.

Some degree of centralised control would be best (whilst maintaining total autonomous capability), however the security aspects of that are immense at the moment, but not insurmountable. Problems are solved faster when there is a need to solve them or the rewards are greater.

The "need to be as intelligent as a human" doesn't hold much weight, there are loads of things computers can do that humans can't, some because of speed, some because of quantity/size/scale and some because of complexity. Memorizing pi to 70,000 digits is brilliant for a human and chickenfeed for a computer that can even calculate it much faster than a human can recall it.
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#998992 - 23rd Jan 2016 10:26pm Re: Autonomous cars [Re: venice]
venice Offline

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Registered: 21st Jul 2011
Posts: 2418
Loc: Wirral
But dont the computor systems have to be set and programmed and maintained by humans who are prone to errors? (And a few rogue nutcases thrown in now and again)

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#998995 - 23rd Jan 2016 10:40pm Re: Autonomous cars [Re: venice]
venice Offline

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Registered: 21st Jul 2011
Posts: 2418
Loc: Wirral
looks like its all ploughing on regardless anyway. Wont be long now, as you can see [url=http://www.driverless-future.com/?page_id=384]HERE[url]

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#998996 - 23rd Jan 2016 10:56pm Re: Autonomous cars [Re: venice]
diggingdeeper Offline

Wiki Guardian

Registered: 9th Jul 2008
Posts: 9549
Loc: Birkenhead
Originally Posted By: venice
But dont the computor systems have to be set and programmed and maintained by humans who are prone to errors? (And a few rogue nutcases thrown in now and again)


Yes, but its relatively easy to test computers in these scenarios as you are testing for zero errors.

When you test humans you get loads of errors.

On your link you missed the "/" off the ending [/url

Code:
 [url] is the opening (or [url=*****])
[/url] is the closing 
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

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#999005 - 23rd Jan 2016 11:58pm Re: Autonomous cars [Re: venice]
venice Offline

Forum Master

Registered: 21st Jul 2011
Posts: 2418
Loc: Wirral
Ah, the slash before the last address -

so adding it, lets see if its [http://www.freshfieldsrescue.org.uk/blogHERE[/http://www.freshfieldsrescue.org.uk/blog]


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#999006 - 24th Jan 2016 12:00am Re: Autonomous cars [Re: venice]
venice Offline

Forum Master

Registered: 21st Jul 2011
Posts: 2418
Loc: Wirral
No, I still havent got it right and I added the slash before I put the url after the word HERE

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#999035 - 24th Jan 2016 10:53am Re: Autonomous cars [Re: venice]
diggingdeeper Offline

Wiki Guardian

Registered: 9th Jul 2008
Posts: 9549
Loc: Birkenhead
If most cars have cruise control not many use it. When following cars on highways in the states it's much easier driving because most cars are doing a steady speed.
_________________________
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act. George Orwell

When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Socrates

Top
#999036 - 24th Jan 2016 11:17am Re: Autonomous cars [Re: venice]
Excoriator Online   content
Veteran

Registered: 21st Jan 2010
Posts: 760
Loc: wirral
The facts of air transport are that you are unbelievably unlikely to hit another aircraft in free flight. Thus a computer - or rather computers (plural) can be used for guidance. Even so, human are required to avoid unpredictable events such as clear-air turbulence etc, and decide whether to go higher or lower or go round it. Such decisions are NOT entrusted to computers, neither are radar detection of nearby aircraft.

Roads are far more crowded, and a dead fly or ice smeared over the lens of a camera could render the vehicle blind to a child running off a pavement.

Such events are easily overcome once they have been thought of, but how on earth can the designers of these systems think of every possible event when there are probably billions of them?

I can remember not long ago driving through Birkenhead and seeing a mother remonstrating with a child having a tantrum on the pavement ahead of me. I slowed down, and thank god I did. I was able to stop easily when the little lad escaped his mothers clutches and ran out in front of me. Could your computer manage that? Or even your computer(s).

You seem to think computers have a huge speed advantage. Generally they do, but digital signal processing takes significant time. You can hear the delay with DAB radios, and it takes seconds. The problem is worse for image processing of course and I doubt your cheery assumption that microprocessors in a car could do the job faster than a human. The evidence is that it can't (There are no systems in existence that can beat a half decent clay pigeon shooter for instance)

I doubt whether self driving cars without steering wheels will ever take over. They are neither necessary nor particularly desirable. Most of us would be bored silly by sitting and might as well do the driving, and many of us quite enjoy it.

Just because a thing is possible shouldn't mean we NEED to do it, and safe self-driving cars are not even possible. Power steering systems sometimes fail, by the way. It's happened to me whilst driving. I was able to drive the car quite safely however, but how would a computer manage such an event?

It is an idiotic thing to even attempt. that several wealthy companies have embarked on this is no great surprise. Many did the same with battery powered cars and they seem to be flopping too, despite huge attempts to foist them on the public.

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